林业碳汇项目高质量发展路径研究——基于福建省58个县域的定性比较分析

Research on high-quality development path of forestry carbon sink projects——based on Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 58 counties in Fujian

林业碳汇是应对气候变化、实现碳中和目标最重要的途径之一。识别林业碳汇项目高质量发展的主要路径及其支撑要素,对扩大林业碳汇供给的政策设计具有重要参考价值。文章以福建省58个县域为研究对象,基于归因理论和因果复杂性视角,采用模糊集定性比较分析法,从林业产业重视度、林业管理能力、资源环境和试点政策四个维度,识别林业碳汇项目高质量发展的主要路径及其支撑要素组合。研究结果表明:(1)林业碳汇试点情况的一致性得分为0.92,大于阈值0.90,而林业系统人力资源在80%的程度上出现在林业碳汇项目高质量发展的不同路径中,表明这两个变量是林业碳汇项目高质量发展的重要解释变量。(2)林业产业重视度、林业管理能力、资源环境和试点政策所含要素的不同组合,形成5条林业碳汇项目高质量发展的组态路径,整体解的一致性水平为0.90,整体覆盖度为0.64。(3)县域林业碳汇高质量发展路径包括政府主导型、林业系统推动型、综合联动型和项目试点型四种类型,分别有12个、4个、3个、2个县域属于以上四种发展类型。文章基于多要素视角构建林业碳汇项目高质量发展的理论框架,引入模糊集定性比较分析法从县域层面识别林业碳汇项目高质量发展的实现路径及其关键支撑要素,有助于丰富和拓展现有县域林业碳汇项目高质量发展的理论体系。文章提出继续发挥试点政策的支持与促进作用、加快恢复各级林草机构的设置、发挥现有优势要素的引导和带动作用、因地制宜制定支持政策等政策启示。

Forestry carbon sink is one of the most important ways to combat climate change and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.Identifying the main paths and supporting elements for the high-quality development of forestry carbon sink projects has important reference value for the policy design of expanding the supply of forestry carbon sink.Taking 58 counties in Fujian province as research objects,based on attribution theory and causal complexity perspective,adopting fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis method,this paper identified the main paths of high-quality development of forestry carbon sink projects and their supporting element combinations from the four dimensions of forestry industry emphasis,forestry management capacity,resource environment and pilot policy.The results showed that:(1)The consistency score of the forestry carbon sink pilot situation was 0.92,which was greater than the threshold value of 0.90,and human resources in the forestry system appeared in different paths of high-quality development of forestry carbon sink projects to a degree of 80%,indicating that these two variables were important explanatory variables for the high-quality development of forestry carbon sink projects.(2)The different combinations of forestry industry emphasis,forestry management capacity,resource environment and elements contained in the pilot policy formed five grouped paths for high-quality development of forestry carbon sink projects,with an overall solution consistency level of 0.90 and an overall coverage of 0.64.(3)The types of high-quality development paths for forestry carbon sinks in counties included government-led,forestry system-driven,integrated linkage and project-pilot types,with 12,4,3,and 2 counties belonging to the above four types of development paths,respectively.This paper constructed a theoretical framework for the high-quality development of forestry carbon sink projects based on a multi-factor perspective,and introduced a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to identify the realization path of the high-quality development of forestry carbon sink projects and its key supporting elements from the county level,which helped to enrich and expand the existing theoretical system of high-quality development of forestry carbon sink projects in counties.This paper put forward policy insights such as continuing to play the supportive and promotional role of pilot policies,accelerating the restoration of forestry and grassland institutions at all levels,playing the guiding and driving role of existing advantageous elements,and formulating supportive policies in accordance with local conditions.