中国对“海上丝绸之路”国家双边贸易影响因素的新考察——基于网络舆情的影响

A New Survey of the Factors Influencing Bilateral Trade between the Countries of the Maritime Silk Road——Based on the Impact of Network Public Opinion

本文基于互联网结构化与非结构化数据,测度“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家对“一带一路”倡议的情感倾向,并考察该倾向对中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家双边贸易的影响。采用文本挖掘技术与空间杜宾模型,在完成对“一带一路”倡议情感倾向性测度的基础上,利用2014-2019年的季度数据及空间计量模型研究网络舆情对中国与沿线国家双边贸易的影响。研究发现:(1)沿线各国对“一带一路”倡议的情感倾向为正,但得分不高且具有较大的波动性;(2)在空间杜宾(SDM)模型中,贸易情感得分及其一阶滞后项均显著,且当期的贸易情感影响高于滞后一期的影响。此外SDM效应分解显示贸易情感存在空间效应,但这一结论在贸易情感的一阶滞后项中并不显著。(3)通过3种不同方式的模型稳健性检验,发现网络舆情对双边贸易的影响均显著,回归结果稳健。

Based on the structured and unstructured data of the Internet,measure the emotional tendency of the countries along the Maritime Silk Road to the Belt and Road Initiative,and examine the impact of this tendency on bilateral trade between China and the countries along the Maritime Silk Road.Using text mining technology and spatial Dubin model,and on the basis of emotional tendency measurement of the Belt and Road Initiative,the network public opinion and the bilateral trade between China and countries along the route were studied using the quarterly data of 2014-2019.Research finding:(1)the emotional tendency of countries along the Belt and Road policy is positive,but the score is not high and has greater volatility,and(2)in the space Durbin(SDM)model,the trade sentiment score and its first-order lag are significant,and the current period's trade emotional influence is higher than the impact of the lag period.In addition,the decomposition of SDM effect shows that there is a spatial effect of trade emotion,but this conclusion is not significant in the first-order lag of trade emotion.(3)Through the test of model robustness in 3 different ways,it is found that the infuence of network public opinion on bilateral trade is significant,and the results of the regression are stable.