央行信息披露对通胀预期的非对称效应研究

The Asymmetric Effect of Central Bank Information Disclosure on Infation Expectations

本文构建了央行分层化信息披露指数,测度了公众通胀预期,并基于MSVAR模型分区制探讨了央行信息披露对通胀预期的非对称效应。研究结果表明:(1)央行信息披露可以有效引导公众通胀预期,且在经济繁荣区制下,央行信息披露对通胀预期的引导作用大于经济平稳及经济衰退区制;(2)央行使用描述物价上涨、经济增长加速的措辞频率越高,公众通胀预期就越高,即目标性央行信息披露对通胀预期的影响为正,且这种正向影响在经济衰退区制下更大;(3)央行宽松性货币政策意图越强,公众通胀预期越高,即政策性央行信息披露对通胀预期的影响也为正,且这种正向影响在经济繁荣区制下更大。与目标性央行信息披露相比,政策性央行信息披露对通胀预期的影响较小。本文的结论为央行进一步健全信息披露机制提供了新的思路。

This paper constructs hierarchical information disclosure indexes for the central bank,measures urban residents'inflation expectations,and then explores the asymmetric effect of central bank information disclosure on inflation expectations based on the MSVAR model.The research results indicate that:(1)Central bank information disclosure can effectively guide the public to form reasonable infiation expectations,and under the economic prosperity zone system,the guiding effect of central bank information disclosure on public inflation expectations is greater than that of the economic stability and economic recession zone systems;(2)The more frequently the central bank uses language to describe rising prices and accelerating economic growth,the higher the public's inflation expectations.That is to say,the impact of targeted central bank information disclosure on public inflation expectations is positive,and this positive impact is greater in economic recession zone;(3)The stronger the intention of the central bank's loose monetary policy,the higher the public's inflation expectations.That is to say,the impact of policy-based central bank information disclosure on public inflation expectations is also positive,and this positive impact is greater under the economic prosperity zone system.Compared with targeted central bank information disclosure,policy-based central bank information disclosure has a weaker impact on public inflation expectations.The conclusion of this paper provides new ideas for China's central bank to further improve its information disclosure mechanisms.