数字金融对中国区域经济韧性的影响机制研究

The Research on the Impact Mechanism of Digital Finance on the Resilience of China's Regional Economy

在实现高质量发展的过程中,提升区域经济韧性是促进经济发展进而带动区域全局发展的重要保障之一.文章从理论层面对数字金融影响区域经济韧性的机制进行分析,并通过构建区域经济韧性评价指标体系对各省份区域经济韧性水平进行测度和分析,基于中国2011-2021年选取的31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,进一步构建基准回归模型、中介效应模型和面板门槛效应模型对理论分析进行实证检验.研究表明:1)区域经济韧性处于较低水平的地区数量依然较多,省份间经济韧性发展水平差距较大,呈现出“东高西低”的不均衡特征;2)数字金融对区域经济韧性具有显著的正向促进作用,且促进效应存在“东部地区>中部地区>西部地区”的区域异质性;3)数字金融在“数字金融→产业结构升级→区域经济韧性”、“数字金融→缩小城乡收入差距→区域经济韧性”、“数字金融→社会保障水平→区域经济韧性”关系中发挥了显著的正向中介效应;4)数字金融对区域经济韧性的促进作用在跨越互联网普及率的门槛值后可以得到更显著的发挥,且东部沿海地区的加速门槛效应显著高于中部内陆地区和西部边远地区.因此,通过因地制宜地发展数字金融,发挥好产业结构升级、缩小城乡收入差距和提高社会保障水平的正向效应,加快现代化信息建设,可以有效提升区域经济韧性水平.

In the process of achieving high-quality development,enhancing regional economic resilience is one of the important guarantees for promoting economic development and driving overall regional development.This paper analyzes the mechanism of digital finance influencing regional economic resilience from a theoretical perspective,and measures and analyzes the level of regional economic resilience of each province by constructing a regional economic resilience evaluation index system.Based on panel data of selected 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)in China from 2011 to 2021,a benchmark regression model,a mediating effect model,and a panel threshold effect model are further constructed to empirically test the theoretical analysis.The research shows that:1)There are still a large number of regions with relatively low levels of regional economic resilience,and there is a large disparity in the development level of economic resilience between provinces,which exhibits an imbalanced pattern of"high in the East and low in the West";2)Digital finance has a significant positive impact on regional economic resilience,with a regional heterogeneity of"eastern region>central region>western region";3)Digital finance has a significant positive mediating effect in the relationships of"digital finance→industrial structure upgrading→regional economic resilience","digital finance→narrowing the urban-rural income gap→regional economic resilience",and"digital finance→social security level→regional economic resilience";4)The promotion effect of digital finance on regional economic resilience can be more significant when crossing the threshold of internet penetration,and the acceleration threshold effect in eastern coastal regions is significantly higher than that in central and inland regions and western remote areas.Therefore,by developing digital finance in line with local conditions,giving full play to the positive effects of industrial structure upgrading,narrowing the urban-rural income gap,and improving social security,and accelerating the construction of modern information technology,it can effectively enhance the resilience of the regional economy.