从核治理的历史经验看人工智能的全球治理

From Nuclear Governance to Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence:What Can We Learn from the History

人工智能的全球治理要在跨国维度上规制人工智能带来的冲突、维持国际秩序。近年来欧美学术界、政策界与传媒界频繁将人工智能与核武器进行对比,反映出对人工智能社会影响的担忧。回顾核治理的历史发现,其制度化的规范体系产生于大国权力均势、对话机制与学习机制。以此观照当下,人工智能全球治理的权力均势、对话机制滞后与学习过程仍在进行,故而制度化程度较低。这使得短时间内人工智能的全球治理将进入风险主导的阶段,但并不能否定长时间内的谨慎乐观。

Global governance of artificial intelligence(Al)must regulate conflicts on a transnational di-mension and maintain international order.In recent years,academics,politicians,and the media world in European countries and America,have frequently contrasted AIl to nuclear weapons,reflecting their concern about Al's social impact.Looking back at the history of nuclear governance,we find that its institutionalized normative system emerged from the balance of major powers,dialogue mechanism,and learning mechanism.Taking this into consideration,none of these three mechanisms are robust enough in current global govern-ance of Al,leading to the insufficient institutionalization.Under such circumstances,the global governance of Al is walking into a risk-led stage in the short term,but it does not mean negating cautious optimism in the long term.