基于ANP-灰色模糊评判的热电联产PPP项目融资风险评价

Financing risk assessmentof combined heat and power PPP project based on ANP-gray fuzzy judgment

热电联产PPP项目具有回报期长、营运风险高等特点,为降低融资风险,保障项目顺利实施,首先基于WSR方法论构建了热电联产PPP项目融资风险评价框架,从物理、事理、人理三个维度对融资风险因素进行系统分类并建立评价指标体系;其次运用网络层次分析法(ANP)考虑因素间的相互关联,结合灰色模糊评判法构建热电联产PPP项目融资风险评价模型;最后,以某燃煤式热电联产PPP项目为例进行评价,得出该项目的融资风险等级偏向显著风险,其中融资能力不足风险、资金运营能力风险、自由退出机制风险是其主要的融资风险因素,针对物理、事理、人理三个维度的融资风险情况提出相应防范措施,为热电联产PPP项目融资风险管理提供借鉴.

In order to reduce the financing risk and ensure the smooth implementation of the project,the financing risks evaluation framework of the Combined Heat and Power PPP project constructe based on the WSR methodology firstly,and the financing risk factors are systematically classified from three dimensions of Wuli-Shili-Renli(WSR),and the evaluation index system is established.Then,the Analytic Network Process(ANP)method is used to consider the relationship between factors,and the Gray Fuzzy method is combined to construct a financing risk evaluation model for Combined Heat and Power PPP projects.Finally,taking a coal-fired cogeneration PPP project as an example,The result displayed that the financing risk level of the project is tend to significant risk,among which the risk of insufficient financing capacity,the risk of capital operation capacity and the risk of free exit mechanism are the main financing risk factors,and corresponding preventive measures are proposed according to the proportion of financing risk in the three dimensions of WSR,so as to provide reference for the financing risk management of cogeneration PPP projects.