长江经济带生态系统服务权衡与协同及其驱动因素

Trade-off and Synergy of Ecosystem Services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Its Driving Factors

生态系统服务及其变化是多种因素驱动的复杂过程,了解生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同作用及其驱动因素,对于实现生态系统服务有效管理和人类福祉至关重要.以长江经济带为研究区域,分析了2000~2020年产水、土壤保持、碳固定和粮食供给这4项生态系统服务的时空变化特征,运用相关性分析和地理加权回归识别和量化了生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系,在此基础上应用偏最小二乘结构方程模型探究自然与人类活动对生态系统服务的影响,再通过地理探测器分析生态系统服务关系变化的驱动机制.结果表明:①近20年来,碳固定服务年均值由946.14 t·km^(-2)增至1202.73 t·km^(-2),粮食供给均值则由32.73万元·km^(-2)增至127.22万元·km^(-2);产水和土壤保持服务增加幅度较小.②整体上,碳固定与土壤保持、粮食供给与产水为协同关系,其他生态系统服务之间为权衡关系;生态系统服务间的关系在不同地区存在一定的差异.③地形和气候是生态系统服务及多对生态系统服务权衡与协同关系的重要驱动因素,其中结构方程模型结果表明,气候对产水为正向影响(S=0.73),地形对粮食供给为负向影响(S=-0.57);地理探测器结果揭示,影响碳固定与产水在空间上关系的主要驱动因子为海拔(q=0.38)和降水(q=0.19).研究结果可为长江经济带生态系统服务可持续管理和实现该区域生态环境保护与社会经济的协同发展提供科学参考.

Ecosystem services(ESs)and their changes are complex processes driven by multiple factors.Understanding the trade-off and synergy between ESs and their driving factors is essential for achieving effective management of ESs and human well-being.Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research area,this study analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of four ESs including water yield,soil conservation,carbon sequestration,and food supply from 2000 to 2020.Correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression were used to identify and quantify the trade-off and synergy between ESs.On this basis,the partial least squares structural equation model was used to explore the impact of natural and human activities on ESs,and then the driving mechanism of ESs relationship change was analyzed via GeoDetector.The results showed that:①During the 20 years,the average annual carbon sequestration increased from 946.14 t·km^(-2)to 1202.73 t·km^(-2),and the average food supply increased from 32.73×104 Yuan·km^(-2)to 127.22×104 Yuan·km^(-2).Water yield and soil conservation increased to a lesser degree.②On the whole,carbon sequestration and soil conservation and food supply and water yield showed synergy,and other ESs were trade-offs.The relationship between ESs varied in different regions.③Terrain and climate were important driving factors for ESs and the trade-off and synergy of multiple ESs.Among them,structural equation model results showed that climate had a positive impact on water yield(S=0.73),and terrain had a negative impact on food supply(S=-0.57).GeoDetector results revealed that the main driving factors affecting the spatial relationship between carbon sequestration and water yield were elevation(q=0.38)and precipitation(q=0.19).The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable management of ESs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the realization of the coordinated development of ecological environment protection and social economy in the region.