成渝城市群紧凑度与碳排放强度时空演变及协调发展

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Coordinated Development of Compactness with CarbonEmission Intensity in the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration

研究成渝城市群紧凑度与碳排放强度的时空演变及协调发展水平,对于实现社会绿色低碳高质量发展至关重要.运用综合评价、碳排放恒等式、耦合协调度和地理探测器等方法对2010~2020年成渝城市群紧凑度与碳排放强度的时空分异、协调发展和驱动因素进行分析.结果表明:①成渝城市群紧凑度持续上升,从2010年的0.18升至2020年的0.22,总体增长22.22%,其中经济紧凑度的贡献率逐年增强.各城市紧凑度区域差异显著,高值区集中在城市群西北部的成都、德阳和绵阳以及西南部的自贡、内江和泸州,低值区分布在中部,雅安是城市群内紧凑度最低的地区.②成渝城市群碳排放强度逐年降低,在研究期内下降幅度达39.57%,城市群南部的碳排放强度整体高于其他区域,成都和重庆两市常年为低值区,碳排放强度的区域差异在逐渐缩小.③城市紧凑度与碳排放强度的耦合度从拮抗阶段转为磨合阶段,耦合协调度从2010年的0.21升至2020年的0.69,两系统逐渐走向良性协调发展.城市群西北部(成都、德阳和绵阳)与川南两市(自贡和泸州)的耦合协调度整体较高.产业结构、科技创新、城镇化水平、政府干预和环境宜居对两系统的耦合协调度都具有显著影响.④优化产业结构、强化科技支撑、提升城镇化发展质量、实施积极的政策引导和建设绿色屏障是促进成渝城市群紧凑度与低碳度协调发展的有效途径.

Studies on the spatio-temporal variation and coordinated development level of compactness with carbon emission intensity in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is of great significance to achieve green,low-carbon,and high-quality development of society.The spatial-temporal differentiation,coupling coordination,and driving factors of the compactness and carbon emission intensity of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed by using the methods of comprehensive evaluation,carbon emission identical equality,coupling coordination,and the Geo-detector model.The results showed that:①The compactness of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration continued to rise from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2020,with an overall increase of 22.22%,in which the contribution rate of economic compactness to urban compactness increased yearly.There were significant regional differences in the compactness of cities.The high-value areas were concentrated in Chengdu,Deyang,and Mianyang in the northwest and Zigong,Neijiang,and Luzhou in the southwest,whereas the low-value areas were distributed in the middle.Ya'an was always the area with the lowest compactness of urban agglomeration.②The carbon emission intensity of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration was decreasing yearly,with a decrease rate of 39.57%during the study period.The carbon emission intensity in the southern part of the urban agglomeration was higher than that in other regions as a whole,whereas Chengdu and Chongqing were low-value areas all the year round,and the regional differences of carbon emission intensity were gradually narrowing.③The coupling degree between urban compactness and carbon emission intensity changed from the antagonistic stage to the running-in stage;the coupling coordination degree increased notably,from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.69 in 2020;and the two systems gradually moved towards benign and coordinated development.The coupling coordination between the northwest of the urban agglomeration(Chengdu,Deyang,and Mianyang)and the south of Sichuan(Zigong and Luzhou)was generally high.Industrial structure,scientific and technological innovation,urbanization level,government intervention,and environmental livability all had significant effects on the coupling and coordination of the two systems.④Optimizing industrial structure,strengthening scientific and technological support,improving the quality of urbanization development,implementing active policy guidance,and building green barriers were effective ways to promote the coordinated development of compactness and low carbon in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.