中国口粮自给率的区域非均衡特征及空间收敛

Regional non-equilibrium characteristics and spatial convergence of China’s self-sufficiency rate of rations

【目的】从消费和需求两个角度探讨口粮安全的区域差异和空间敛散性,以期为各区域更好地承担口粮安全责任提供科学依据。【方法】本文以口粮自给率作为衡量口粮安全的标准,基于消费统计法测量2000—2020年中国省域口粮自给率,利用Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法考察全国及四大区域口粮自给率相对差异的大小、来源及演变态势,进一步应用Kernel密度估计及空间收敛分析其绝对差异分布的动态演进过程及空间敛散性特征。【结果】①2000—2020年全国口粮自给率呈三阶段上升,四大区域口粮自给率上升程度差异明显,上升程度总体呈现中部>东北>东部>西部的变化特征。②研究期内,东部及东北地区口粮自给率区域内差异显著扩大,中、西部地区略微扩大;区域间差异对全国口粮自给率区域差异的贡献率均值高达47.92%,远高于区域内差异20.38%的贡献率和超变密度31.71%的贡献率。③与西部地区不同,东部、中部和东北地区口粮自给率在分布形态和极化趋势上相似,表明研究期内三大区域内的绝对差异不断扩大,存在高低两极分化现象。④空间溢出效应情境下,全国和四大区域口粮自给率均存在显著的绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,口粮生产的各影响因素对区域口粮自给率条件收敛起着决定作用。【结论】中国整体口粮的绝对安全掩盖了区域口粮的不安全,但是未来口粮安全区域差异有缩小的可能。

[Objective]This article discussed the regional differences and spatial convergence of ration security from the perspectives of consumption and demand,in order to provide a scientific basis for each region to better assume the due responsibility of ration safety.[Methods]In order to examine the spatial differentiation characteristics and distribution dynamics of ration self-sufficiency rate in the four main regions of China,this study used the consumption statistics method and measured the self-sufficiency rate of rations based on provincial data from 2000 to 2020.We used the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method to investigate the degree,source,and trend of change of regional relative differences of ration self-sufficiency in China and its four regions.On this basis,the kernel density estimation method and spatial convergence were further used to describe the dynamic change process of distribution and spatial convergence characteristics of absolute difference.[Results](1)From 2000 to 2020,the national ration self-sufficiency rate kept rising in three stages and in the four regions it was significantly different.The ration self-sufficiency rate of the four regions in descending order were central China,northeast China,eastern China,and western China.(2)During the study period,the regional differences of the ration self-sufficiency rate increased significantly in eastern and northeastern China,but only slightly in central and western China.However,the average contribution rate of the difference of ration self-sufficiency rate among the four regions to the interregional differences was 47.92%,much higher than the contribution rate of intraregional difference of 20.38%and super-density of 31.71%.(3)Different from the western region,the distribution pattern and polarization trend of the ration self-sufficiency rate in the eastern,central,and northeastern regions were similar,indicating that the absolute differences in the three regions were expanding continuously,and there was a phenomenon of high and low polarization.(4)Considering the spatial spillover effect,the absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence of the ration self-sufficiency rate existed in the whole country and the four main regions.The influencing factors of the ration production played a decisive role in the conditional convergence of the regional ration self-sufficiency rate.[Conclusion]The overall absolute security of China’s ration provision obscured regional insecurity,downplaying the research on regional differences of ration security.But regional differences in ration security are likely to narrow in the future.