水下人-机协同搜救作业人因可靠性分析研究

Research on human reliability analysis of underwater man-machine cooperative search and rescue operation

为分析水下人-机协同搜救作业人因可靠性并识别其关键影响因素,根据水下搜救训练实际和相关研究结论提取人因可靠性影响因素;建立人因可靠性影响因素体系,利用解释结构模型定性分析各影响因素间相关关系,将建立的各影响因素的解释结构模型转换为贝叶斯网络拓扑结构,分别构建潜水员作业、无人遥控潜水器(ROV)作业、人-机协同作业人因可靠性分析贝叶斯网络;通过对3类贝叶斯网络进行推理,揭示影响人因可靠性的关键因素及其依赖关系,并定量分析3种作业模式下的人因可靠性变化。结果表明:人-机协同搜救作业中“误解意图”“通信不畅”“信息不对称”“作业精度不足”“丧失救助能力”等影响因素起到关键作用;当上述因素得到较好控制时,人-机协同搜救作业的人因可靠性将会表现出优于单纯的ROV或潜水员独立施救的效能。研究结果可为水下搜救作业人因可靠性分析与提升提供参考。

In order to analyze the human reliability of the underwater man-machine cooperative search and rescue(SAR)operation and identify the key influencing factors,the influencing factors of human reliability were extracted according to the underwater SAR training practice and relevant research conclusions.An influencing factors system of human reliability was established,and the correlation between the influencing factors was qualitatively analyzed by the interpretative structural model.The interpretative structural model of the influencing factors was converted into the Bayesian network topology,and the Bayesian network for human reliability analysis regarding to three modes of operation,namely diver operation,remote operated vehicle(ROV)operation,man-machine cooperative operation was constructed,respectively.Through the reasoning analysis on three Bayesian network,the key factors affecting human reliability and their dependence were revealed,and the change in human reliability under the three operation modes was quantitatively analyzed.The results show that the“misunderstanding intention”,“poor communication”,“information asymmetry”,“insufficient operation accuracy”,“loss of rescue capability”and other influencing factors play key roles in the man-machine cooperative SAR operation.When these factors are well controlled,the human reliability of the man-machine cooperative SAR operation will outperform the single ROV or diver independent rescue.The research results can provide reference for human reliability analysis and improvement of underwater SAR operations.