突发事件舆情衰退期模糊综合评价

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on public opinion recession period of emergency

为探究突发事件网络舆情态势的发展过程,对舆情衰退期的形成进行准确研判,面向微博平台获取4类突发事件数据信息,基于传统评价指标体系,从信息主体、信息内容和信息传播3个角度出发,构建突发事件舆情衰退期评价指标体系,并结合直觉模糊层次分析法对影响因素进行综合评价。研究结果表明:基于模糊综合评价对4类突发事件进行实证分析,综合评估确定后得到评价分值≥4.8时,网络舆情态势进入衰退期。研究结果可为高效分配舆情监控资源、快速获取和分析舆情信息、提升相关方舆情治理效能提供新思路。

In order to explore the development process of network public opinion situation in emergency,and accurately judge the formation of public opinion recession period,four types of emergency data information of Weibo platform were obtained.Based on traditional evaluation index system,an evaluation index system for the public opinion recession period of emergency was constructed from three perspectives of information subject,information content and information dissemination,and the influencing factors were comprehensively evaluated combining with the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method.The results show that through the empirical analysis on four types of emergencies based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,it is determined by comprehensive evaluation that the network public opinion situation enters a recession period when the evaluation score is greater than or equal to 4.8.The research results can provide new ideas for improving the effectiveness of public opinion governance of relevant parties,effectively allocating monitoring resources,quickly obtaining and analyzing public opinion information,and responding to and managing network public opinion.