基于SPEI的濮阳夏玉米生长季干旱特征分析

Analysis of Drought Characteristics of Summer Maize Growing Season in Puyang Based on SPEI

干旱是濮阳地区夏玉米生产过程中最主要的农业气象灾害,本研究旨在探究濮阳地区夏玉米生长季(6—9月)干旱的演变规律,并分析其对农业生产的影响,以便采取有效的防灾减灾措施。通过利用濮阳5个气象站点在1991—2020年间的逐月气温和降水量数据,研究采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)结合小波分析和Mann-Kendall检验方法来识别干旱变化特征。研究发现,夏玉米苗期、穗期和花粒期干旱发生率分别为26.7%、30.3%和35%。特别是在2010年后,夏玉米各生长阶段均呈现干旱化趋势,并在1992、1995、1998、2002、2005、2018等年份观测到气候突变现象。周期性分析显示,不同生长阶段的干湿周期存在差异,其中苗期为8~9 a和20~25 a,穗期为6~10 a和15~25 a,花粒期为5 a、10 a和18~24 a,而整个生长季则为8~9 a和22 a。由于气候异常,自2010年以来,干湿周期性变化有所减弱,干旱化趋势明显,且存在干湿突变的风险。因此,针对濮阳地区夏玉米生产,建议加强气候监测、预警预报以及防灾减灾工作,以应对气候变化带来的挑战。

Drought is the most important agrometeorological disaster in the process of summer maize production in Puyang area.It is of great significance to clarify the evolution law of agricultural drought occurrence for taking effective disaster prevention and mitigation measures.Using the monthly temperature and precipitation of 5 meteorological stations in Puyang from 1991 to 2020,standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the characteristics of drought change in the summer corn growing season(June-September)in Puyang.The results showed that the incidence of drought in summer maize seedling stage was 26.7%,and it showed a trend of drought after 2010.The abrupt climate change occurred in 1992,1995 and 2005,and the climate of summer maize seedling stage showed a periodic change of dry and wet of 8-9a and 20-25a.The incidence of drought in the ear period of summer maize was 30.3%,and the climate changed abruptly in 2018,and the climate in the ear period showed dry and wet periodic changes of 6-10a and 15-25a.The incidence of drought in the summer corn grain period was 35%,the climate abrupt change occurred in 1992,1998,2002 and 2018,and the climate in the flower grain period showed periodic changes of dry and wet of 5a,10a and 18-24A.The incidence of drought in the whole growing season of summer maize was 32.3%,climate abrupt change occurred in 2010,2015 and 2019,and the climate of summer maize during the whole growing period showed dry and wet periodic changes of 8 to 9a and 22a.Due to the abnormal climate,the cyclical changes of dry and wet become weaker after 2010,showing a trend of drying,and there is a risk of abrupt change in dry and wet conditions.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen monitoring,early warning,forecasting and defense work in the production process of summer maize.