全产业链减损对中国粮食安全的影响研究——基于局部均衡模型的模拟分析

The Impact of Reducing Losses and Waste at the Whole Supply Chain on Food Security in China:Simulation Analysis Based on the Partial Equilibrium Model

我国三大主粮全产业链浪费和损失严重,全产业链减损能够有效增加粮食供给。本文利用局部均衡模型模拟预测表明,2025—2035年,水稻、小麦和玉米三大主粮全产业链减损潜力为2000万~9500万吨不等,总体来看,能够保障三大主粮实现100%自给。建议构建粮食全产业链减损部门协作机制和常态化监测评估机制,制定粮食减损的短期和中长期动态目标和工作方案;提高粮食供应端生产、存储和加工环节的减损技术和服务供给,实现减损于“技”;加大消费端爱粮节粮宣传,提高全民节粮减损认知,实现2030年联合国粮食减损的可持续发展目标。

There is a serious food losses and waste during the food supply chain in China's major staple crops,including wheat,maize,and rice.Reducing losses and waste of the whole food supply chain can effectively increase food supply.This paper explores the potential reduction in food losses and waste within the supply chain with the Partial Equilibrium Model.The results show that the potential reduction in losses for rice,wheat and maize ranges from 20 million to 95 million tons in 2025-2035,which can guarantee the nearly 100% self-sufficiency rate of grains.We suggest firstly,the government should establish multi-sector collaboration mechanism,and making short and medium term dynamic goals and work programs for food loss reduction.Secondly,the government should improve service and technology to reduce the losses and waste of the production,storage and processing in food supply chain.Thirdly,raising public awareness of food conservation is very important for achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goal of food conservation by 2030.