现代化初期的教育阶段与经济发展——基于晚清新学扩张的量化考察

Education Stages and Economic Development at the Beginning of Modernization:A Quantitative Investigation Based on the Modern Education Expansion in Late Qing China

对于现代化起步时期的发展中国家而言,合理规划不同阶段教育的规模至关重要,本文从经济发展的角度予以讨论。基于晚清中国推行新式教育的历史情境,研究使用教育扩张情况在时期上和地区间的双重差异构建实证策略。结果显示,相比于较高阶段的中学堂和专门学堂,处于基础地位的小学堂对于中国近代经济的促进作用最为突出;然而,新式学堂不能推动近代产业的发展,也无法提升经济的增长速度,意味着新式教育主要通过劳动力技能提升而非技术进步来发挥正向作用。这些发现有助于从早期教育扩张的角度认识近代中国的经济落后以及新中国成立后的经济腾飞,也为当前落后国家和地区的教育政策提供了启发,还有望完善教育与经济关系及其机制的动态研究。

For developing countries at the beginning of modernization,it is important to rationalize the scale of education at different stages,and this article discusses it from the perspective of economic development.Based on the historical context of the introduction of modern education in Late Qing China,an empirical strategy is constructed using the dual differences of educational expansion over time and across regions.The results show that,compared to higher-level secondary schools and specialized schools,primary schools,which are in a foundational position,have the most prominent role in promoting China's modern economy.However,modern schools cannot drive the development of modern industries or accelerate economic growth,which suggests that modern education mainly plays a positive role through labor skills improvement rather than technological progress.These findings can provide inspiration for educational policy-makers in backward countries and regions,contribute to the understanding of economic conditions in modern China from the perspective of early educational expansion,and also promise to achieve a dynamic view of the relationship between education and economy.