“两山”理论背景下山西省低碳农业发展研究

Research on Low-carbon Agricultural Development in Shanxi Province Under the Background of‘Two Mountains’Theory

在“两山”理论背景下农业温室气体排放问题受到各界的广泛关注,需要采取积极的应对措施来减缓对气候变化的影响,低碳农业的热度不断提高。该研究运用排放因子法和参数估计法测算山西省2010—2021年农业碳排放量和碳汇量,采用SBM模型评价农业环境效率。结果表明:2010—2021年山西省农业碳排放量呈现“较快上升-缓慢下降-快速上升”的趋势,排放强度呈下降趋势;农业碳汇总量整体呈现“快速上升-下降-缓慢上升”趋势,净碳汇量与之大致相同;2021年农业碳排放总量727.03万t、碳汇总量1549.25万t。通过环境效率模型评价2010—2021年山西省农业环境效率,山西省环境效率稳步提升,在2020年达到最优拟合,2021年继续保持最优拟合;总结了山西省现有生态循环、清洁能源、种养结合和绿色科技4种典型低碳农业发展模式;并提出了大力发展有机旱作农业、大举优化农业生产方式和大兴农业碳交易市场3点建议,以期为山西省低碳农业高质量发展提供参考依据。

Under the background of the‘Two Mountains’theory,the issue of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions has attracted wide attention from all walks of life,and positive measures need to be taken to mitigate the impact on climate change,and the heat of low-carbon agriculture is increasing.This study used emission factor method and parameter estimation method to estimate agricultural carbon emission and carbon sink from 2010 to 2021 in Shanxi Province,and used SBM model to evaluate agricultural environmental efficiency.The results showed that the agricultural carbon emission in Shanxi Province presents a trend of‘rapid rise-slow decline-rapid rise’during 2010—2021,and the emission intensity showed a downward trend.The overall agricultural carbon sink showed a trend of‘rapid rise-decline-slow rise’,and the net carbon sink was roughly the same.In 2021,agricultural carbon emissions will total 7.2703×104 t and carbon sinks will total 15.4925×104 t.The environmental efficiency model was used to evaluate agricultural environmental efficiency in Shanxi Province from 2010 to 2021.The environmental efficiency of Shanxi Province was steadily improved,reaching the optimal fit in 2020 and maintaining the optimal fit in 2021.This study summarized four typical low-carbon agricultural development modes in Shanxi Province,ecological cycle,clean energy,combination of planting and breeding and green science and technology.In order to provide reference for the high quality development of low carbon agriculture in Shanxi Province,three suggestions were put forward,vigorously developing organic dry farming agriculture,optimizing agricultural production mode and developing agricultural carbon trading market.