加入世贸组织以来中国丝绸出口的变动特征分析

Analysis on the Changing Characteristics of China’s Silk Export Since the Accession to WTO

利用贸易增长的三元分析方法,基于2001—2020年中国对主要丝绸出口国的面板数据,对加入世贸组织(WTO)后中国丝绸出口的变动特征,从总体、双边和出口品类3个维度进行实证分析。结果表明,中国对主要丝绸出口市场的出口份额受集约边际的影响大于拓展边际,数量效应大于价格效应,丝绸出口存在数量优势大、出口品类完整但价格优势小的特点,中国对主要出口市场的丝绸出口仍“以量取胜”,亟待提高产品定价话语权。就出口品类而言,中国对主要出口市场丝类商品出口贸易的边际结构比较稳定,中国丝类商品在主要出口市场渗透率的影响,市场拓展效应大于出口数量效应大于出口价格效应。

Making use of ternary analysis method of trade growth,and based on the panel data of China’s major silk ex-porting countries from 2001 to 2020,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the changing characteristics of China’s silk exports after accession to the WTO from three dimensions,namely,total,bilateral and export categories.The re-search shows that the export share of China’s main silk export markets is affected more by the intensive margin than the expansion margin,and the quantity effect is greater than the price effect.The silk export has the characteristics of large quantity advantage,complete export categories but small price advantage.China’s silk export to the main export mar-kets is still“winning by quantity”,and it is urgent to improve the power of product pricing.In terms of export categories,the marginal structure of China’s export trade of silk products in the main export markets is relatively stable.As for the impact on the penetration rate of China’s silk products in the main export markets,the market expansion effect is greater than the export quantity effect,which is in turn greater than the export price effect.