基于Dematel与云模型的老龄管道风险评价研究

Research on Risk Assessment of Aging Pipelines Based on Dematel and Cloud Models

为寻找老龄油气管道失效的主控因素及因素间的相互关系,基于Dematel与云模型对老龄管道进行风险评价。首先,应用Dematel方法将风险因素分类,确定影响度、被影响度、原因度、中心度和指标权重;然后,将老龄管道风险评价指标的云模型参数代入正向云发生器,实现云滴在空间中可视化,获取不同层级指标的综合风险云图;最后,以某油田所属的10条集输管道为例进行分析验证。结果表明:土壤腐蚀性、服役年限、政府保护机制等指标的影响度较大,防腐涂层破损情况、阴极保护有效性指标的被影响度较大,阴极保护有效性、政府保护机制、运行误操作指标的中心度最大;1号和3号管道的风险等级最高,风险评价结果与现场实际情况相符。

In order to find the main controlling factors of the failure of aging oil and gas pipelines and the relationship between them,the risk assessment of aging pipelines was carried out based on Dematel and cloud models.Firstly,the Dematel method is applied to classify risk factors and determine the degree of influence,degree of being affected,degree of cause,centrality,and indicator weights.Then,the cloud model parameters formed by the index values are substituted into the forward cloud generator to realize the visualization of cloud droplets in space.The comprehensive risk cloud map of different levels of indicators is obtained.Take 10 gathering and transportation pipelines belonging to an oilfield as an example for analysis and verification.The results indicate that indicators such as soil corrosiveness,service life,and government protection mechanisms have a significant impact.The damage of anti-corrosion coatings and the effectiveness indicators of cathodic protection are greatly affected.The centrality of cathodic protection effectiveness,government protection mechanisms,and operational misoperation indicators is the highest.The risk level of pipelines 1 and 3 is the highest,and the risk assessment results are consistent with the actual situation on site.