全国森林火灾形势及其时空聚集性特征分析

Analysis of Forest Fire Situation and Its Temporal and Spatial Aggregation Characteristics in China

为进一步研究全国森林火灾发生的时间规律与空间聚集性特征,基于全国2004—2022年度、2015—2021年月度的森林火灾发生次数及2017年31个省(自治区、直辖市)水文地理条件数据,利用Prophet时间序列模型与模糊聚类分析法对森林火灾特征进行分析。结果表明:Prophet时间序列模型在森林火灾预测领域具有良好的适用性;时间规律方面,2004—2022年森林火灾次数呈先下降后上升再下降趋势,且季节因素影响突出,节假日影响因素不显著;空间聚集性方面,31个省(自治区、直辖市)可大致分为7个类别,其分类基本与地域特点有关。研究结果可为挖掘森林火灾时空分布及聚集性特征提供参考。

To further study the temporal patterns and spatial clustering characteristics of forest fires,in China,the forest fire characteristics were analyzed based on the monthly frequency of forest fires in 2004-2022 and 2015-2021 and the hydrological and geographical conditions of 31 provinces and cities in 2017 using the Prophet time series model and fuzzy clustering analysis.The results show that the Prophet time series model has good applicability in the field of forest fire prediction.In terms of temporal patterns,forest fires from 2004 to 2022 showed a trend of first decreasing,then increasing,and were significantly affected by seasonal factors.The factors affecting the holidays are not significant.In terms of spatial clustering,the 31 provinces can be roughly divided into sevens categories,which are basically related to their geographical locations and characteristics.The research results can provide references for exploring the spatiotemporal distribution and clustering characteristics of forest fires.