2010—2019年河南省肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤发病与死亡趋势分析

Analysis on the Trends of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Henan Cancer Registration Areas from 2010 to 2019

[目的]分析2010—2019年河南省肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤发病及死亡趋势变化。[方法]收集整理河南省2010—2019年各肿瘤登记处恶性肿瘤发病、死亡数据,评估数据的完整性、有效性和可靠性。分性别、年龄、癌种计算其发病(死亡)率及标化发病(死亡)率。标化率采用2000年全国人口普查标准人口年龄构成计算。利用Joinpoint软件对发病与死亡情况进行趋势分析,计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。[结果] 2010—2019年河南省肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤粗发病率呈上升趋势,AAPC为1.74%(95%CI:1.52%~1.96%),调整人口年龄结构后,标化发病率趋于平稳。年龄组发病趋势结果显示,男性0~29岁与80岁及以上人群发病呈上升趋势,40~59岁呈下降趋势;女性0~39岁年龄段呈上升趋势,其余各年龄组均保持平稳。全省恶性肿瘤粗死亡率呈上升趋势,AAPC为1.17%(95%CI:0.50%~1.84%),调整人口年龄结构后,标化死亡率以0.79%(95%CI:-1.52%~-0.06%)的幅度下降。年龄别死亡趋势结果显示,男性30~59岁、女性15~59岁死亡率均呈下降趋势,80岁及以上两者均上升。分部位发病与死亡情况显示,男、女性肺癌发病与死亡标化率均保持平稳状态,胃癌、肝癌、食管癌发病与死亡水平均呈显著下降趋势;男性结直肠癌、甲状腺癌、前列腺癌、淋巴瘤的标化发病率呈上升趋势;女性甲状腺癌、乳腺癌、结直肠癌、宫颈癌、卵巢癌的标化发病率呈上升趋势。性别特异癌种中,前列腺癌与卵巢癌标化死亡率呈上升趋势。[结论]河南省恶性肿瘤总体发病、死亡趋势均呈小幅度上升趋势。男性0~29岁和女性0~39岁发病率上升趋势显著,30~59岁死亡率下降趋势显著。结直肠癌、甲状腺癌、前列腺癌、女性乳腺癌等常见癌种发病率上升趋势显著,胃癌、肝癌、食管癌发病率和死亡率均呈低幅度下降趋势,未来亟需进一步加强和优化癌症防控策略和措施。

[Purpose]To analyze the trends of cancer incidence and mortality in Henan cancer registration areas from 2010 to 2019.[Methods]The cancer registration data of Henan were collected from 2010 to 2019,and the data quality including completeness,validity and reliability were evaluated.The incidence and mortality,age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)were stratified by sex,age and cancer sites in the cancer registration populations,and Chinese standard population in 2020 were used to calculate the age-standardized rate.Trends of cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2019 were estimated by Joinpoint regression software,the average annual change percentage(AAPC)were calculated.[Results]The trend of cancer incidence increased from 2010 to 2019 in Henan cancer registration areas,and the AAPC was 1.74%(95%CI:1.52%~1.96%),but the ASIR was stable.The ASIR of age groups showed that 0~29 and 80+age groups increased significantly in men,and decreased in 40~59 age groups,only 0~39 age groups increased significantly in women.The trend of cancer mortality increased from 2010 to 2019 in Henan,and the AAPC was 1.17%(95%CI:0.50%~1.84%),but the ASMR decreased by 0.79%(95%CI:-1.52%~-0.06%)in AAPC.The ASMR of age groups showed that 30~59 age groups in men and 15~59 age groups in women decreased significantly,and increased over 80 years old in both.The ASIR and ASMR of lung cancer were stable in men and women,but ASIR and ASMR of stomach cancer,liver cancer,esophagus cancer decreased.In addition,ASIR of colorectal cancer,thyroid cancer,prostate cancer and lymphoma increased in men.The ASIR of thyroid cancer,breast cancer,colorectal cancer,cervical cancer and ovarian cancer increased in women.For sex-specific cancer,ASMR of prostate cancer and ovary cancer both increased.[Conclusion]The trends of incidence and mortality of cancer in Henan province increased slowly.The incidence trends increased significantly both in 0~29 age groups of men and in 0~39 age groups of women,and the mortality in 30~59 age groups decreased significantly in both men and women.The incidence of colorectal cancer,thyroid cancer,prostate cancer,women breast cancer and ovary cancer rose steadily,while incidence and mortality of gastric cancer,liver cancer and esophageal cancer slightly decreased.Cancer prevention and control strategies and measures need to be further strengthened and optimized in the future.