2010—2018年安徽省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病和死亡分析及2019—2024年变化趋势预测

Changes of Incidence and Mortality of Female Breast Cancer in Anhui Cancer Registration Areas from 2010 to 2018 and Trend Prediction from 2019 to 2024

[目的]对2010—2018年安徽省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率趋势进行分析,并对2019—2024年变化趋势进行预测。[方法]收集整理2010—2018年安徽省各肿瘤登记处女性乳腺癌发病和死亡数据,分析粗发病率与粗死亡率、中标发病率与中标死亡率、年龄别发病率与死亡率等指标,采用Joinpoint软件计算年平均变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC),并用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测2019—2024年变化趋势。[结果]2010—2018年安徽省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌粗发病率为29.32/10万,中标发病率为23.50/10万;粗死亡率为6.74/10万,中标死亡率为5.20/10万,城市女性中标发病率和中标死亡率(26.10/10万、5.83/10万)均高于农村女性(21.27/10万、4.64/10万)。女性乳腺癌的中标发病率和中标死亡率均呈上升趋势,AAPC依次为4.68%、4.53%。农村女性中标发病率和中标死亡率的增长趋势(AAPC依次为7.81%、7.58%)均高于城市女性(AAPC依次为2.10%、0.96%)。2010—2018年安徽省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌年龄别发病率在50~54岁年龄组达到高峰(78.70/10万),年龄别死亡率呈持续增长趋势,在85岁及以上年龄组达到最高,为27.60/10万。预测结果显示,2019—2024年女性乳腺癌的发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势。[结论]安徽省肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病率和死亡率仍呈现上升趋势,应该针对不同地区和年龄特征加强对农村女性和50~64岁人群女性的乳腺癌防治。

[Purpose]To analyze the changes of incidence rate and mortality of female breast cancer in Anhui cancer registration areas from 2010 to 2018 and predict the trend from 2019 to 2024.[Methods]The incidence and mortality data of female breast cancer in Anhui cancer registration areas from 2010 to 2018 were collected.The crude incidence and mortality rates,age-standardized incidence/mortality rates by Chinese standard population in 2000(ASIRC,ASMRW),agespecific incidence/mortality rates and other indicators were analyzed.Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC),and gray model GM(1,1)was used to predict trends from 2019 to 2024.[Results]From 2010 to 2018,the crude incidence of female breast cancer in Anhui cancer registration areas was 29.32/105,ASIRC was 23.50/105;crude mortality rate was 6.74/105and the ASMRC was 5.20/105.The ASIRC and ASMRC of urban women(26.10/105,5.83/105)were higher than those of rural women(21.27/105,4.64/105).The ASIRC and ASMRC of female breast cancer were on the rise with AAPC of 4.68%and 4.53%,respectively.The increase trends of ASIRC and ASMRC in rural women(AAPC=7.81%,7.58%)were higher than those in urban women(AAPC=2.10%,0.96%).From 2010 to 2018,the age-specific incidence rate of female breast cancer peaked at the age group of 50~54 years(78.70/105),and the age specific mortality rate peaked in the age group of 85+years old(27.60/105).The prediction results showed that the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer were increasing from 2019and 2024.[Conclusion]The incidence rate and mortality rate of female breast cancer in Anhui cancer registration areas are still on the rise,and the prevention and treatment of breast cancer for rural women and women from age 50 to 64 years old should be given particular attentions.