“一带一路”共建国家纺织品贸易的社会网络分析

Social network analysis of textile trade in"The Belt and Road"countries

基于2001—2020年“一带一路”沿线66个国家的纺织品贸易数据,运用社会网络分析方法测算网络中心性,运用块模型方法考察“一带一路”沿线内部各国纺织品贸易的竞争互补关系,并运用QAP方法对纺织品贸易网络结构及影响因素进行分析。研究发现:(1)“一带一路”倡议实施以来,纺织品贸易网络密度显著提升,网络呈现明显的核心-边缘结构,中国始终处于纺织品贸易网络中心位置。(2)“一带一路”倡议提出前后,中国、印度、泰国等核心国由内部型板块转为双向溢出板块且核心国之间存在纺织品贸易竞争关系。(3)影响因素对“一带一路”共建国家纺织品贸易网络的影响从大到小排列依次为:经济规模、国家间区域贸易协定、人口规模、文化近邻性以及地理距离。立足研究结论,结合“一带一路”共建国家纺织品贸易网络格局,提出社会网络视角下促进中国与“一带一路”共建国家纺织品贸易高质量发展的相关政策建议。

Based on the textile trade data of 66 countries along the Belt and Road from 2001 to 2020,this paper uses the social network analysis method to measure the network centrality,uses the block model method to investigate the competitive and complementary relationship of textile trade among countries along the Belt and Road,and uses the QAP method to analyze the structure of textile trade network and its influencing factors.The results show that since the implementation of the"Belt and Road"Initiative,the density of textile trade network has increased significantly,and the network presents an obvious core-edge structure.China has always been in the center of textile trade network.Before and after the"Belt and Road"Initiative is put forward,core countries such as China,India and Thailand changed from internal sector to two-way overflow sector,and textile trade competition existed among core countries.The influencing factors on the textile trade network of countries along the Belt and Road are,in descending order,economic scale,regional trade agreements between countries,population scale,cultural proximity and geographical distance.Based on the research conclusions and combined with the textile trade network pattern of the Belt and Road countries,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions to promote high-quality development of textile trade between China and"The Belt and Road"countries from the perspective of social network.