能源转型的地缘政治影响研究进展

Research progress on the geopolitical impacts of energy transition

随着全球应对气候变化政治共识的达成、可再生能源技术的快速发展,以及新冠疫情后各国“绿色复苏计划”的陆续推出,可再生能源引领的能源转型加速推进,将对当前建立在化石能源基础之上的能源地缘政治格局带来复杂而深远的影响。能源转型不仅改变了国际能源市场供需结构与市场投资格局,而且带来了全球能源地缘政治权力格局的重塑。能源地缘政治涵义及其形态均相应地发生变化,主要体现在可再生能源的快速发展为能源需求提供了多元化的可能性,可以一定程度上缓解能源地缘政治竞争,但围绕关键矿物材料与可再生能源技术的博弈可能加剧;能源转型将重塑能源秩序,化石能源出口国会受到显著影响,可再生能源技术领先者将获得更多的缘政治优势;电网互联及氢能可能成为未来地缘政治博弈的新领域,技术与标准的竞争将是博弈的重要内容。

With the rising political consensus on combating climate change,the rapid development of renewable energy technologies,and the launch of the'green recovery plans'after the COVID-19 pandemic,the acceleration of renewable energy-led energy transformation will have a complex and far-reaching impact on the current energy geopolitical landscape which is based on fossil fuels.Energy transition has not only changed the supply and demand structure and investment pattern in the international energy market,but also brought about the reshaping of global energy geopolitical pattern.The meaning and form of energy geopolitics changed accordingly,which could be demonstrated by the following aspects.The rapid development of renewable energy provides the possibility of diversification of energy demand,which can thus alleviate energy geopolitical competition to some extent.However,the security risks and geopolitical tensions related to critical materials and renewable energy technologies might be intensified.Energy transition will reshape the energy order,with fossil energy exporters be significantly affected,while renewable energy technology leaders may gain more geopolitical advantages.In the medium and long term,power grid interconnection and hydrogen energy may become new fields of geopolitical competition with the competition in technology and standards as an important aspect.