我国省际全要素生产率的对比分析研究

Comparative Analysis and Research on China's Provincial Total Factor Productivity

传统的按照索洛方法计算的广义技术进步率并不是本来意义上的全要素生产率。因此,本文重新构建全要素生产率的测度框架。一是明确定义全要素生产率,即一定时期内,按照现有的技术条件和产业结构比例,每投入一个单位的全部生产要素所能够带来的最终产出。二是利用有关统计数据估算省级层面有效资本存量,并分别构建各省份合适的计量模型估计其在不同发展阶段的要素产出弹性系数,进而测度各省份全要素生产率以及因全要素生产率变动所带来的经济增长率(简称全要素经济增长率)。实证分析结果表明,一般情况下,经济越发达省份的全要素生产率也越高,但是经济发达省份的全要素经济增长率并不一定高于经济欠发达省份。该结果不仅与常识相符,而且也合理解释了各省份生产效率与技术进步之间的联系与区别,验证了本文所提出的测度框架及方法的可行性。

The traditional Solow method of calculating total factor productivity growth is not truly a measure of total factor productivity in its original sense.Therefore,the paper reconstructs the measurement framework for total factor productivity.Total factor productivity is explicitly defined as:in a certain period,according to the existing technological conditions and industrial structure proportions,the final output can be generated by each unit of all production factors invested.The effective capital stock of each province was estimated using statistical data.And appropriate econometric models were respectively constructed to estimate the factor output elasticities of each province at different stages of development.Subsequently,the total factor productivity of each province was measured,as well as the economic growth rate resulting from changes in total factor productivity.Empirical analysis results indicate that,generally,provinces with more advanced economies tend to have higher total factor productivity.However,the total factor economic growth rate of economically developed provinces is not necessarily higher than that of less developed provinces.This result not only aligns with common sense but also provides a reasonable explanation for the connection and distinction between production efficiency and technological progress in different provinces.It validates the feasibility of the measurement framework and methods proposed in this article.