日本亚太多层联盟--准联盟体系析论

Japan's Multi-Layered Alliance and Quasi-Alliance System in Asia-Pacific Area

联盟性合作是日本政府外交的重要支柱。在日本右倾化加剧背景下,日本政府为制衡中国崛起、提高外交自主权、摆脱战后体制束缚,积极推动联盟性合作由单一联盟向多层联盟一准联盟体系转型,扩充了日本联盟性合作的内涵与外延。基于联盟、准联盟、准联盟化等概念,以亚太地区的日美、日澳、日菲三组双边联盟性合作为例,根据受“威胁”程度、制度化程度、外交战略方向一致性程度三个维度,可将日本亚太多层联盟一准联盟体系分为核心、次核心、边缘三个层次,其中日美联盟合作居于核心地位,日澳准联盟合作居于次核心地位,日菲准联盟化合作则居于边缘地位。日本初步建立起亚太多层联盟一准联盟体系,但仍面临日美联盟关系不对称、联盟一准联盟体系不平衡、联盟性合作对象国的外交政策存在固有的摇摆性以及日本国内政治生态牵制等内生性限制因素。中国可对此有的放矢地予以应对,以弱化该体系造成的外交冲击。

Alliance Cooperation is an important pillar of the Japanese government's diplomacy.Under the background of Japan's intensified rightward shift,the Japanese government,in order to balance China's rise,enhance its diplomatic autonomy and break away from the constrains of the post--war system,has actively promoted the transformation of alliance cooperation from the single alliance to the multi-layered alliance and quasi-alliance system,which has expanded the connotation and extension of Japan's alliance cooperation.Based on the definition of alliance,quasi-alliance and quasi-allianciation,this paper will analyze the three bilateral alliance cooperation group of Japan-U.S.,Japan-Australia and Japan-Philippines,and classify Japan's multi-layered alliance and quasi-alliance system into core,sub-core and peripheral levels according to three dimensions of the degree of"threat",the degree of institutionalization and the degree of consistency in diplomatic strategic direction.Among the system,Japan-U.S.alliance cooperation is at the core,Japan-Australia quasi-alliance cooperation is at the sub-core,and Japan-Philippines quasi-alliance cooperation is at the marginal level.Japan has initially established a multi-layered alliance and quasi-alliance system,but it still faces the asymmetry of the Japan-U.S.alliance relationship,the imbalance of the alliance and quasi-alliance system,the wavering foreign policies of the alliance partner countries,and the internal variables such as the constraints of Japan's domestic political ecology.China can actively respond to this in a targeted manner to weaken the diplomatic impact caused by the system.