食品中化学物质风险评估的不确定性

Uncertainties in Food Safety Risk Assessment of Chemicals

由于客观的随机性、人类的认识不足、主观性判断等影响,食品安全风险评估过程中存在着许多来源的不确定性,对化学物质风险评估结果的可靠性和决策的正确性造成影响。识别、分析、处理和交流影响风险评估的不确定性已是科学共识,不确定性的研究科学地评价了风险评估结论的可信度,并有效识别了影响因素和来源,推动了风险评估模式的转变。我国食品安全风险评估已形成相对完整的机制,但有关不确定性的研究较少。本文主要从风险评估者角度出发,介绍了不确定性的来源及分类,不确定性的分析、处理及沟通,以提供借鉴和参考。

The uncertainties existing in the process of food risk assessment have an impact on the reliability of chemical risk assessment results and the correctness of regulatory policies,which are caused by the effects of objective randomness,insufficient human understanding,and subjectivity of judgments.There is a general agreement amongst scientific experts that the uncertainties affecting the assessment of risks should be identified,assessed,managed,and communicated.The analysis of uncertainty can evaluate the credibility of risk assessment conclusions scientifically,identify influencing factors and sources effectively,and promote the transformation of risk assessment models.Food safety risk assessment has formed a relatively complete system in China,but there is relatively little research on uncertainty,in contrast.This article mainly introduces the source and classification of uncertainty,as well as the analysis,characterization,and communication of uncertainty from the perspective of risk assessors,in order to provide reference and reference.