基于分省分行业用电量的中国区域间制造业转移和承接趋势

Trend of Manufacturing Transfer and Undertaking Between Regions in China Based on Electricity Consumption by Province and Industry

2008年以来,中国经济发展的内外部条件发生急剧变化,政府十分重视产业有序转移和推动生产力优化布局。针对长期以来中国产业转移趋势判断技术手段不足、研究结论存在较多争议等问题,充分发挥用电量统计优势,建立了评估产业转移与承接趋势、规模的方法。基于2010—2021年分省分行业用电量测算发现,区域间存在一定规模的产业转移与承接;环保政策对华北、华中电网区域产业转出影响较大;华东电网区域产业转移规模不及预期,可能主要在区域内部转移;西北电网区域除了高耗能产业集聚趋势强化,纺织、医药、设备制造等产业存在转入;南方电网区域产业转出类型更加多样、转出规模更大,主要来自广东省的影响。结合研究结论,提出了相关的政策启示。

Since 2008,the internal and external conditions of China's economic development have changed dramatically,and the government attaches great importance to the orderly transfer of industries and the optimization of productivity.In view of the existing situation that for a long time the technical means have not been enough to judge the trend of industrial transfer in China and relevant research conclusions are controversial,this paper establishes a method to evaluate the trend and scale of industrial transfer and undertaking by taking advantage of the electricity consumption statistics.Based on the calculation of power consumption by province and industry during 2010-2021,it is found that there is a certain scale of industrial transfer and undertaking between regions;environmental protection policies have a great impact on the industrial relocation in North China and Central China power grid;the scale of East China power grid's regional industrial transfer is less than expected,which may be due to the reason that the industrial transfer is mainly undertaken within the region;in addition to the increasing agglomeration trend of energy-consuming industries,textile,medicine,equipment manufacturing and other industries are transfering to the northwest power grid region;the regional industrial transfer types in China Southern power grid's region are more diverse and the scale is larger,mainly due to the influence of Guangdong Province.Combined with the research conclusions,relevant policy proposals are put forward.