考虑减排潜力的中国省域碳排放权分配研究——基于改进的ZSG-DEA模型

Research on Carbon Emission Right Allocation in Chinese Provinces Considering Emission Reduction Potentials——Based on Improved ZSG-DEA Modeling

在2030年中国实现碳达峰的目标背景下,本文针对碳排放权合理分配的问题,采用改进的ZSG-DEA模型考虑各省(区、市)的减排潜力,探寻兼顾公平和效率的碳排放权省域分配方案。研究结果表明:(1)我国各区域减排潜力各不相同,东部地区减排潜力较大,西部地区减排潜力组内差距较大,且低减排潜力组有50%集中在西部地区,中部地区整体减排潜力不足,东北地区集中于中、低减排潜力组;(2)改进的ZSG-DEA模型计算出减排系数更加合理,缩减了减排压力差距,能通过缩小省(区、市)之间的不公平程度来降低政策实施难度;(3)综合减排潜力和减排系数两个方面发现,仍有部分省(区、市)如河南等处于低潜力高减排的状态,面临凭借自身条件难以有效降碳的困境,也有部分地区在碳减排方面“仍有余力”。基于上述结论,本文提出以下建议:各区域应发挥自身优势助力碳减排,在安排省(区、市)碳排放额度时要注重不同省(区、市)的减排潜力,同时加强减排责任意识,推动区域之间的合作。

Against the background of China's goal of achieving carbon peaking by 2030,the improved ZSG-DEA model is used to consider the emission reduction potentials of each province(autonomous regions and municipalities)and explore a provin⁃cial allocation scheme of carbon emission rights that takes into account both fairness and efficiency,in order to address the issue of rational allocation of carbon emission rights.The results of the study show that:(1)China's emission reduction potential varies a⁃mong regions,with the eastern region having a larger emission reduction potential,the western region having a larger gap within the emission reduction potential group and 50%of the low emission reduction potential group being concentrated in the western region,the overall emission reduction potential of the central region being insufficient,and the northeastern region being concentrated in the medium-and low-efficiency emission reduction potential groups.(2)The improved ZSG-DEA model calculates the emission re⁃duction coefficients in a more reasonable way,shrinks the gap in emission reduction pressure,and can reduce the difficulty of poli⁃cy implementation by narrowing the degree of inequality between provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities).(3)The syn⁃thesis of emission reduction potential and emission reduction coefficients reveals that some provinces(autonomous regions and mu⁃nicipalities),such as Henan,are still in the state of low potential and high emission reduction,and are facing the dilemma of bei⁃ng unable to effectively reduce carbon emissions on their own,while some regions still have“spare capacity”in carbon emission reduction.Based on the above conclusions,the article puts forward the following suggestions:each region should make use of its own advantages to contribute to carbon emission reduction;when arranging provincial carbon emission credits,it should pay atten⁃tion to the emission reduction potentials of different provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities);at the same time,it should strengthen the sense of responsibility for emission reduction,and promote the cooperation between regions.