强省会战略背景下城市合并促进经济发展的实证研究——以济南与莱芜合并为例

An Empirical Study on Urban Merger Promoting Economic Development under the Background of Strong Provincial Capital Strategy——Taking the Merger of Jinan and Laiwu as an Example

在强省会战略背景下,寻求与周边城市或区县合并成为有效开拓城市腹地、扩大经济规模、优化产业布局、吸引劳动人口的有效手段。然而由城市合并带来的规模集聚真的能够有效促进经济发展吗?本文以济南与莱芜合并为例,收集2003—2022年山东省各地市、全国15个副省级城市以及江苏省内各地市的面板数据,采用合成控制法,分析城市合并前后产生的处理效应,评估城市合并政策对当地经济发展带来的影响。

In the context of the strategy to strengthen the provincial capital,seeking to merge with surrounding cities or counties has become an effective means of expanding urban hinterland,increasing economic scale,optimizing industrial layout,and attracting labor force.However,can the scale agglomeration brought about by urban mergers really effectively promote economic development?The paper takes the merger of Jinan and Laiwu as an example,collects panel data from various cities in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2022,applies the synthetic control method to analyze the processing effects before and after the merger,and evaluates the impact of the merger policy on local economic development.