大枣产业发展对榆林乡村振兴的影响实证——基于面板固定效应模型

Rural Revitalization in Yulin——Based on Panel Fixed Effect Model

以榆林乡村振兴局搜集到的大枣产业数据和榆林统计年鉴(2013~2022)的数据为基础,采用最小二乘法估计面板固定效应模型参数,然后通过逐步回归法逐步分析红枣产业整体发展水平kit、红枣总产值占比d_eit、种植面积占比d_fit和红枣产量占比d_git对乡村农民收入、产业融合和乡村就业的影响。结果表明,无论是单变量,还是多个变量的情况下,kit、d_eit、d_fit、d_git对乡村农民收入产业融合都有着正向影响;在多变量下,加入d_fit和d_git后没有通过显著性检验,但kit、d_eit对乡村农民收入和产业融合呈现为正向显著影响。最后根据分析结果,总结了当前榆林大枣产业发展的问题,并提出了相应的建议。以期为提升榆林市大枣产业的经济效益、促进乡村振兴战略的开展和实施提供参考。

On the basis of the jujube industry data collected by Yulin Rural Revitalization Bureau and the data of Yulin Statistical Yearbook(2013~2022),the parameters of panel fixed effect model are estimated by least square method.Then,the influences of the overall development level of jujube industry(k it),the proportion of total output value of red jujube(d_e it),the proportion of planting area(d_f it)and the proportion of red jujube yield(d_g it)on rural farmers'income,industrial integration and rural employment are gradually analyzed by stepwise regression method.The results show that in the case of either single variable or multiple variables,k it,d_e it,d_f it and d_g it have a positive impact on rural farmers'income and industrial integration.In the case of multiple variables,the significance test is not passed after adding d_f it and d_g it,but k it and d_e it have a positive and significant impact on rural farmers'income and industrial integration.the panel fixed-effect model parameters were estimated by the least squares method.Finally,according to the analysis results,the problems of the current jujube industry development in Yulin are summarized,and the suggestions are put forward,thereby providing reference for improving the economic benefits of jujube industry in Yulin and promoting the development and implementation of rural revitalization strategy.