多中心都市圈市域(郊)铁路线网规模预测方法研究

Research on the Prediction Method of Suburban Railway Network Scale in Polycentric Metropolitan Area

市域(郊)铁路连接都市圈中心城市和周边城镇组团,是服务都市圈通勤客流的轨道交通系统,合理的市域(郊)铁路线网规模预测对线网规划具有一定指导意义。首先分析影响都市圈市域(郊)铁路线网规模的主要因素,结合多中心都市圈特点,分析其对市域(郊)铁路线网规模的影响;然后以常规线网规模预测方法为基础,针对多中心都市圈自身特点,基于熵权法构建市域(郊)铁路综合预测方法;最后选取厦漳泉都市圈为实例,分析并预测厦漳泉都市圈2035年市域(郊)铁路合理线网规模为789.0 km。

The suburban railway connects the central city of the metropolitan area with the surrounding urban clusters,and is a rail transit system that serves the commuting passenger flow.A reasonable scale of the suburban railway network has certain guiding significance for network planning.Firstly,this article identified the main factors that influencing the network scale,and analyzed their impact on the scale of suburban railway network with considering the characteristics of polycentric metropolitan areas.Subsequently,based on the conventional network size prediction method and taking into account the characteristics of polycentric metropolitan areas,a comprehensive prediction method for suburban railways was constructed using the entropy weight method.Finally,taking the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou metropolitan area as an example,the article analyzed and predicted the suburban railway network scale of the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou metropolitan area to be about 789.0 km in 2035.