实体清单事件对中国高端制造企业绩效影响

Impacts of entity list events on performance of high-end manufacturing enterprises in China

中国作为全球供应链重要成员,对世界经济贸易具有突出贡献和重要意义,而作为兼具重要贸易盟友和强大竞争对手的美国,近年对中国经济贸易限制逐渐增加,尤其是采取“实体清单”出口限制政策等,针对性打压中国高端制造行业,造成供应链中断,其影响和应对措施值得探究。本文在中美贸易摩擦背景下,利用事件研究法,针对实体清单事件造成的冲击影响进行研究,对比分析2018年至2021年间七次事件,对涉及的超过96家中国高端制造企业的冲击情况及变化进行研究并探讨其原因。研究结果表明,最初实体清单事件对企业绩效有显著的负向冲击,而随着时间推移,负向影响程度逐渐减弱,甚至近年有些事件出现正向反馈。同时,事件冲击具有行业扩散效应,其影响会波及相关四个高端制造行业内其他企业。进一步分析发现企业营运情况越好、供应链集中度越高、创新能力越稳定,对实体清单造成的供应链中断风险应对越有利。因此针对现状,政府、高端制造行业和企业都应充分了解实体清单事件冲击影响并做好应对准备,政府应尤其重视领导多方协作,企业应提高自主创新、合理增加研发投入。此外,各方应共同推进中国高端制造产业发展和提高对外部环境不确定性风险应对能力。

As an important member of the global supply chain,China has made extraordinary outstanding contributions and has great significance to the economy and trade of the whole world.As an important trading ally as well as a strong competitor,the United States has gradually increased its economic and trade restrictions on China in recent years.Especially by adopting the export restriction policy of"Entity List",United States has directly suppressed the high-end manufacturing industry in China,and the policy also caused the supply chain interruption in world wide.The impacts of these entity list events and effective response measures towards this kind of ex-port restriction policy and supply chain interruption are especially worth exploring.In this paper,we use the event study method to ex-amine the impacts of multiple entity list events in the context of the US-China trade friction.Aiming to compare and analyze the im-pact and changes of the influence of the entity list event and further to explore the causes,we focus on seven different entity list events involved more than 96 enterprises in the Chinese high-end manufacturing industry from 2018 to 2021.The results of the study show that initially the entity list event has a significant negative impact on firm performance,while the degree of negative impact diminishes over time and some of the events even show positive feedback in recent years.At the same time,impacts of entity list events exist an significant industry diffusion effect,with the impacts spreading to other enterprises in the four related specific high-end manufacturing industry.Further analysis reveals that the better the operations,the higher the concentration of supply chains and the more stable the innovation capacity,the better the response to the risk of supply chain disruption caused by the export restriction policy such as the en-tity list.Therefore,the government,high-end manufacturing industry and enterprises should be fully aware of the impacts of the entity list events and be well prepared to cope with them.The government should especially pay more attention to leading the collaboration of all these multiple parties to develop related capacities and improve the future situation.Enterprises should improve on independent in-novation and reasonably increase investment in research and development.In addition,all these multiple parties should jointly promote the development of Chinas high-end manufacturing industry and develop the risk coping ability towards uncertain external environ-ment.