税收竞争影响长三角地区政府债务的实证研究——基于空间杜宾模型的分析

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Tax Competition on Government Debt in Yangtze River Delta:Analysis Based on Spatial Tobin Model

利用长三角41个城市2011—2021年面板数据,实证分析税收竞争对长三角地区地方政府债务的影响,再利用中介效应对其影响作用进行进一步探析。结果显示:有序的税收竞争会抑制政府债务增长,无序的税收竞争会刺激政府债务扩张,长三角地区税收竞争对政府债务的影响处于U型线的左边。区域异质性检验结果显示:安徽地区税收竞争对政府债务扩张的直接效应显著,江浙沪地区税收竞争影响政府债务扩张的间接效应显著。机制检验结果显示:经济发展水平在税收竞争影响政府债务的过程中发挥了中介作用。

Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2011 to 2021,the impact of tax competition on local government debt in the Yangtze River Delta region is empirically analyzed,and its impact is further explored by the intermediary effect.The results show that:orderly tax competition will restrain the growth of government debt,however,disorderly tax competition will stimulate the expansion of government debt,and the influence of tax competition on government debt in the Yangtze River Delta is on the left side of the U-shaped line.The results of regional heterogeneity test show that tax competition in Anhui has a significant direct effect on government debt expansion,while tax competition in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai has a significant indirect effect on government debt expansion.At the same time,the results of the mechanism test show that the level of economic development plays an intermediary role in the process of tax competition affecting government debt.