西方稀土产业链重构对中国贸易地位的影响

The impact of reconstruction of western rare earth industry chain on China’s trade position

在西方“去风险化”盛行的背景下,国际稀土产业链重构成为一个广泛关注的问题。为研究美西方稀土产业链重构对中国稀土产品贸易地位的影响,采用复杂贸易网络,以出口贸易额为权重构建了有向加权贸易矩阵,借助相关指标分析了2002—2021年稀土贸易网络格局变化,并借助Python软件的networkx包对2019年6类稀土产品贸易网络进行中断模拟,中断规则设计为主要网络节点对主要产品的蓄意中断。研究发现:澳大利亚中断向中国出口稀土原矿(HS253090)对中国节点近邻平均强度影响最大,但是可以通过显著加大从其他贸易伙伴进口来克服这种影响。中国中断向日本出口稀土金属(HS280530)对中国贸易网络聚类加权系数和节点近邻平均强度影响较大,而中国中断向美国出口稀土永磁(HS850511)的影响相对较小。在原有贸易关系被减弱或中断后,相较于增强与其他原有贸易国的贸易往来,中国更倾向于开拓新的贸易合作关系。除了铈的化合物(HS284610)之外,中国处于其他5种产品贸易网络的核心地位,影响力最大。中国在稀土永磁(HS850511)的贸易网络中抗干扰性最好,而稀土金属(HS280530)的中转性有待加强。

As the“de-risk”theory prevailing in the West,the reconstruction of the international rare earth industry chain has become a widely concerned issue.To study the follow-up effects,a complex trade network is used to build a directed weighted trade matrix with export volume as the weight,and the changes in the pattern of rare earth trade network from 2002 to 2021 are analyzed.Furthermore,the interruption simulation of the trade network of six rare earth products in 2019 is carried out with the help of networkx package of Python software.The rules of interruption are designed to intentionally break products trade between major network nodes.The study finds that the interruption of rare earth ore(HS253090)imported to China from Australia has the greatest impact on the ANNS(average of nearest-neighbor strengths),but this impact can be counteracted significantly by increasing imports from other trading partners.The interruption of rare earth metals(HS280530)exported to Japan has a great impact on the clustering weighted coefficient of China’s trade network and the ANNS,while rare earth permanent magnet(HS850511)to the USA has a relatively small impact.After the original trade relationship has been weakened or interrupted,China is more inclined to develop new trade cooperation relations than to enhance trade with other original trading countries.With the exception of cerium compounds(HS284610),China is at the core of the other five rare earth trade networks and has the greatest influences.China has the best interference immunity in the trade of rare earth permanent magnet(HS850511),while the network transitivity of rare earth metals(HS280530)should be strengthened.