中国城市群旅游经济韧性的动态变化及障碍因子分析

Spatiotemporal dynamic and obstacle factor analysis of tourism economic resilience in Chinese urban agglomeration

旅游经济韧性强调旅游生态系统吸收或承受扰动和其他压力的能力,使旅游产业的发展维持其结构和功能;旅游韧性管理通过合理的内外部资源利用,以最快的速度恢复旅游产品供给和旅游服务功能。在多源数据支持下,构建中国城市群旅游经济韧性评价指标体系,运用组合动态评价法对各城市群旅游经济韧性进行定量分析以及识别韧性水平层次,通过空间核密度方法对城市群旅游经济韧性的演进过程、空间分布形态进行动态分析,使用障碍度模型分析各准则层与指标层对旅游经济韧性的负面影响程度,为旅游经济韧性水平提升寻找路径支撑。结果表明:(1)大多数城市群在2010—2018年间的旅游经济韧性均呈上升趋势,但2020年受到疫情的影响,旅游经济韧性下降;(2)城市群旅游经济韧性发展与区域经济发展的空间格局及演进规律基本一致;(3)城市群内部相邻城市的发展对韧性水平的影响较小,城市群整体的旅游经济韧性水平相对独立;(4)数字化工具在旅游业中的应用对提高韧性起到了积极作用。

The resilience of the tourism economy emphasizes the ability of the tourism ecosystem to absorb or withstand disturbances and other pressures,enabling the development of the tourism industry to maintain its structure and function.Good tourism resilience management can restore the supply of tourism products and the functions of tourism services at the fastest speed through reasonable utilization of internal and external resources.Supported by multi-source data,a tourism economic resilience evaluation index system for Chinese urban agglomerations was constructed.The combination dynamic evaluation method was used to quantitatively analyze the tourism economic resilience of each urban agglomeration and identify the level of resilience.The spatial kernel density method was used to dynamically simulate and analyze the evolution process and spatial distribution pattern of tourism economic resilience in urban agglomerations.An obstacle model was used to analyze the negative impact of each criterion layer and indicator layer on tourism economic resilience,in order to find path support for improving the level of tourism economic resilience.The results indicate that:(1)The tourism economic resilience of most urban agglomerations showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2018,reflecting the overall enhancement of tourism economy in different regions of China.However,due to the impact of the COVID-19 in 2020,the resilience of tourism economy declined.(2)The spatial pattern and evolution law of the resilience development of tourism economy in urban agglomerations are basically consistent with that of regional economic development.(3)The development of adjacent cities within the urban agglomeration has a relatively small impact on the resilience level,and the overall tourism economic resilience level of the urban agglomeration is relatively independent.(4)The application of digital tools in the tourism industry has a positive impact on enhancing resilience.This article proposes suggestions to strengthen resilience in responding to emergencies,promote the widespread application of digitalization and informatization in the tourism industry,optimize the infrastructure and resource allocation of the tourism market,and establish the cooperation mechanism between urban clusters,in order to enhance the overall resilience of urban clusters.