中国城镇化与碳排放机制分析及实证研究——基于经济发展、人口转移和城镇扩张视角

Mechanism analysis and empirical research on urbanization and carbon emissions in China: Based on the perspective of economic development, population transfer, and urban expansion

城镇化与碳排放都是国家关注重点、学界研究热点和政策治理难点。基于经济发展、人口转移和城镇扩张视角,从“产业—人口—土地”多维度分析城镇化与碳排放机制,并综合运用脱钩分析、Kaya-LMDI因素分解和STIRPAT-LSDV模型,实证研究中国城镇化与碳排放机制。结果发现:(1)产业、人口和土地是城镇化的关键物质要素,其交互演变构成碳排放变化的逻辑起点。经济发展、人口转移和城镇扩张是城镇化与碳排放耦合交互的底层逻辑、重要因素和空间保障。(2)加入WTO以来,中国工业化进程加快,城镇化与碳排放耦合关系从弱脱钩转变为增长耦合乃至增长负脱钩。迈入高质量发展阶段后,产业、人口和土地城镇化对碳排放的促进作用逐渐衰竭。(3)1990—2020年,伴随城镇化快速推进,中国能源结构、能源效率、低碳经济结构、人均经济水平、经济规模、城镇人口规模、城镇人口密度、城镇用地规模、城镇用地强度的变动,对碳排放的作用效应分别为1.37亿t、-139.98亿t、-138.61亿t、163.53亿t、223.95亿t、60.41亿t、-25.24亿t、85.66亿t、138.29亿t。(4)2003—2020年,中国能源结构、能源效率、第二三产业占比、城镇人口、城镇建成区面积分别提升1%,碳排放相应增长1.111%、-0.560%、0.771%、0.477%、0.488%,并且城镇化与碳排放交互机制具有时空异质性。研究结果能够为新型城镇化和“双碳”战略实施提供科学依据与决策参考。

Urbanization and carbon emissions are both national focuses,academic research hotspots,and policy governance difficulties.Based on the perspectives of economic development,population transfer,and urban expansion,this paper analyzes the mechanisms of urbanization and carbon emissions from the multi-dimensional perspective of"industry-population-land",and uses decoupling analysis,Kaya-LMDI factor decomposition,and STIRPAT-LSDV model to empirically study the mechanisms of urbanization and carbon emissions in China.The study indicates that:(1)The material elements of urbanization,namely industry,population,and land,play a crucial role in the evolution of urbanization,and their changes are the logical starting point for changes in carbon emissions.The underlying logic,important factors,and spatial guarantee of the coupling interaction between urbanization and carbon emissions are economic development,population transfer,and urban expansion.(2)Since China acceded to the WTO,industrialization has accelerated.The relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions has changed from weak decoupling to growth coupling and even negative decoupling.As China enters the stage of high-quality economic development,the role of industry,population,and land urbanization in promoting carbon emissions has gradually diminished.(3)From 1990 to 2020,the effects of China's energy structure,energy efficiency,low-carbon economic structure,per capita economic level,economic scale,urban population size,urban population density,urban land size,and urban land use intensity on carbon emissions in the process of urbanization were 1.37,-139.98,-138.61,163.53,223.95,60.41,-25.24,85.66,and 138.29 billion tons,respectively.(4)Between 2003 and 2020,China's energy structure,energy efficiency,proportion of output value of the secondary and tertiary industries,urban population,and urban built-up area increased by 1%respectively,and carbon emissions correspondingly increased by 1.111%,-0.560%,0.771%,0.477%,and 0.488%,respectively.The interaction mechanism between urbanization and carbon emissions has spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The research results can provide scientific basis and decision-making reference for the implementation of new urbanization and the"Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals"strategy.