耕地多功能对粮食生产能力变化的敏感度研究

Study on the sensitivity of cultivated land multifunction to the changes of grain productivity capacity

基于敏感度模型和GIS可视化方法,使用2005—2020年辽宁省各地级市统计数据,分析辽宁省耕地多功能对粮食生产能力变化的敏感度。研究发现:(1)2005—2020年,辽宁省耕地多功能指数平均值上升,生产功能和社会功能指数平均值上升,生态功能指数平均值下降。(2)2020年,辽宁省各耕地多功能分区的粮食生产能力呈现显著差异,粮食生产能力与耕地各功能存在不同响应关系。(3)2005—2020年,耕地多功能对粮食生产能力变化的敏感度降低,耕地生产功能对粮食生产能力变化的敏感度升高,耕地社会功能和生态功能对粮食生产能力变化的敏感度降低,敏感区数量有波动且存在空间分布差异。应进一步提升辽宁省耕地多功能优化配置水平,提高粮食生产能力。

The function of cultivated land has undergone extensive and profound changes,from a single grain production function to a multifunction such as social security,ecological protection and landscape culture.Under this context,it is particularly important to analyze the sensitivity of multifunctional cultivated land to grain production capacity.Based on the statistical data of 14 prefecture-level cities in Liaoning province from 2005 to 2020,the multifunction of cultivated land and grain production capacity of multifunction zoning were analyzed by using entropy weight method and sensitivity model,and the sensitivity of cultivated land multifunction to the change in grain production capacity was examined.The results are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2020,the average value of multifunctional index of cultivated land increased,the average value of productive function and social function indexes of cultivated land increased,and the average value of ecological function index of cultivated land decreased.(2)According to the results,there were five multifunctional divisions of cultivated land in the study area in 2020.There are significant differences in grain production capacity among different functional divisions,and the response relationships between grain production capacity and various functions of cultivated land is different.(3)From 2005 to 2020,the sensitivity of cultivated land multifunction to the change of grain production capacity showed a downward trend,the sensitivity of cultivated land production function to the change of grain production capacity presented an upward trend,while the sensitivity of cultivated land social function and ecological function to the change of grain production capacity exhibited a downward trend,and the quantitative change of sensitive areas showed certain fluctuations and spatial distribution differences.Therefore,we should further improve the level of multifunctional optimal allocation of cultivated land in Liaoning province,and improve the grain productivity.