中国电力行业碳解锁演变特征及影响因素——基于“能源-技术-制度”三重视角

Evolution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon unlocking in China's power industry:based on the triple perspective of"Energy-Technology-System"

电力行业是中国二氧化碳排放“大户”,电力行业碳解锁是实现“双碳”目标的关键。借鉴脱钩理论,重点剖析中国电力行业碳解锁特征,通过构建扩展的STIRPAT模型,采用动态面板的系统高斯混合模型(GMM)估计方法、空间杜宾模型等,深入探究2010—2021年中国电力行业的碳解锁影响因素,得到以下结论:第一,中国电力行业多数相邻年份以及多数省(区、市)均属于相对解锁状态;第二,能源解锁、技术解锁、制度解锁是电力行业实现碳解锁的重要动力,且发电技术、低碳规制对电力行业碳解锁的影响还存在显著的空间溢出效应;第三,电力行业的制度解锁效应具有明显的区域异质性,不同电力结构和发电技术区域的制度解锁效应各不相同。未来,中国电力行业碳解锁不仅要考虑电力结构、发电技术,以及低碳规制等机制,而且还需注重解锁机制的空间溢出效应和异质性。

The power industry is the major contributor of carbon dioxide emissions in China,and carbon unlocking of power industry is the key to achieve the"double carbon"goal.According to the decoupling theory,carbon unlocking characteristics of China's power industry were analyzed.Base on the extended STIRPAT model,influencing factors of carbon unlocking in China's power industry from 2010 to 2021 were explored by using the systematic Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM)estimation method of dynamic panel and spatial Dobbin model.The conclusions were as follows.Firstly,most neighboring years and most regions of China's power industry were in a relatively unlocked state.Secondly,energy unlocking,technology unlocking and system unlocking were important driving forces for the power industry to realize carbon unlocking.Both technology unlocking and system unlocking had significant spatial effects.Thirdly,the institutional unlocking effect of the power industry had obvious regional heterogeneity,and the institutional unlocking effect of different power structures and power generation technology regions was different.In the future,the carbon unlocking mechanism of China's power industry should not only consider the power structure,power generation technology and low-carbon regulation,but also pay attention to the spatial spillover effect and heterogeneity of the carbon unlocking mechanism.