气候冲击下金融风险的研究进展和展望——基于物理风险和转型风险视角

Research Progress and Prospects of Financial Risks Under Climate Impacts:A Perspective Based on Physical Risks and Transition Risks

本文从物理风险和转型风险两个视角综述了近年来关于气候风险对经济和金融体系影响的研究进展。在宏观经济层面,气候风险对经济增长和波动的影响显著。物理风险通过减少资本积累、降低劳动生产率,对经济增长产生负面影响;转型风险在短期内抑制经济产出和就业,但长期内通过推动低碳技术进步,有助于提升经济效率和产出。在微观经济层面,气候风险对企业生产经营和财务决策的影响广泛。气候物理风险可能导致企业市场估值下降、成本增加和盈利能力减弱;转型风险则通过影响企业融资成本和资产估值,形成“碳泡沫”并引发金融风险。金融机构方面,银行、保险和资管行业需在现有风险管理体系中纳入气候风险因素,以应对潜在的金融不稳定性。研究表明,气候风险敞口对金融机构资产负债表和经营稳定性构成重要威胁。在梳理现有文献的基础上,本文提出了多角度的气候风险测度方法,并探讨了气候风险对宏观经济波动、微观企业生产经营及金融机构稳定性的影响,最后对未来研究方向进行了展望。本文为进一步研究气候风险及其经济金融影响提供了有益的理论基础和实践参考。

This paper reviews the recent research progress on the impact of climate risk on economic and financial systems from the perspectives of physical risk and transition risk.At the macroeconomic level,climate risk significantly affects economic growth and volatility.Physical risk negatively impacts economic growth by reducing capital accumulation and labor productivity;transition risk suppresses economic output and employment in the short term but helps enhance economic efficiency and output in the long term through the promotion of low-carbon technology advancements.At the microeconomic level,climate risk broadly affects corporate production,operations,and financial decisions.Studies have found that physical climate risk can lead to lower market valuations,increased costs,and reduced profitability for companies;transition risk affects corporate financing costs and asset valuations,forming a“carbon bubble”and triggering financial risks.For financial institutions,banks,insurers,and asset management sectors need to integrate climate risk factors into their existing risk management systems to address potential financial instability.Research indicates that climate risk exposure poses significant threats to the balance sheets and operational stability of financial institutions.Based on a review of existing literature,this paper proposes multi-dimensional methods for measuring climate risk and discusses its impact on macroeconomic fluctuations,corporate operations,and the stability of financial institutions.Finally,it provides an outlook on future research directions.This review offers a valuable theoretical foundation and practical reference for further studies on the economic and financial impacts of climate risk.