基于马尔科夫链理论的电动汽车充电负荷度量研究

Research on Measurement of Electric Vehicle Charging Load Based on Markov Chain Theory

电动汽车充电负荷度量是电动汽车充电配置规划的重要依据,但现行方法的度量精度较低,度量结果的置信水平较低,MPE较高,无法达到预期的度量效果,因此,提出基于马尔科夫链理论的电动汽车充电负荷度量研究。利用马尔科夫链理论对电动汽车充电和出行过程进行表达,描述汽车剩余荷电状态转移过程,并根据不同时间段的荷电状态转移过程分析电动汽车充电负荷需求,度量电动汽车充电负荷,实现基于马尔科夫链理论的电动汽车充电负荷度量。经证明,该设计方法度量结果的置信水平在96%以上,MPE不超过1%,可以实现对电动汽车充电负荷的精准度量。

The measurement of electric vehicle charging load is an important basis for electric vehicle charging configuration planning.However,the current methods have low measurement accuracy,low confidence level of measurement results,high MPE,and cannot achieve the expected measurement effect.Therefore,a research on electric vehicle charging load measurement based on Markov chain theory is proposed.Using Markov chain theory to express the charging and travel process of electric vehicles,describing the residual state of charge transfer process of the vehicle,and analyzing the charging load demand of electric vehicles based on the state of charge transfer process at different time periods,measuring the charging load of electric vehicles,thus achieving the measurement of electric vehicle charging load based on Markov chain theory.Experimental results have shown that the confidence level of the measurement results of the design method is above 96%,and the MPE does not exceed 1%,which can achieve accurate measurement of the charging load of electric vehicles.