考虑城市多能源系统不确定性的移动能量枢纽规划方法

Mobile Energy Hub Planning Model Considering the Uncertainty of Urban Multi-energy System

针对低碳新能源供能与电热气负荷间能量平衡困难及其时空不确定性,提出一种基于交通流和多源能量流协同的城市多能源系统移动能量枢纽(mobile energy hub, MEH)模型及规划方法。首先,研究低碳型高比例可再生能源供能的城市多能源系统源网荷能量和功率平衡及其调节需求特性,建立具有灵活的“电-气-氢”能源转换和存储特性的移动能量枢纽模型;其次,基于移动能量枢纽模型,综合考虑交通运输网络流量动态及其输运成本,建立基于交通网与城市多能源系统网络协同和移动能量枢纽能量特性的多能流时空协调模型;然后,考虑可再生能源出力以及负荷不确定性,提出城市多能源系统不确定性模型,并在此基础上建立了综合投资和运行成本最小的移动能量枢纽规划模型;最后,以我国北方某地区多能源系统运行数据为基础,建立移动能量枢纽仿真模型。算例仿真结果表明,该文提出的移动能量枢纽规划模型能够有效提升城市多能源系统维持较高能量平衡水平下的经济性,并可为较大供能规模的多能源网络提供较好的多时空尺度能量调节特性。

Aiming at the difficulty of energy balance between low-carbon renewable energy supply and electricity,heat,and gas loads and its time-space uncertainty,we proposed a mobile energy hub(MEH)model and planning method for urban multi-energy system based on traffic flow and multi-source energy flow coordination.First,we studied the source-grid-load energy and power balance of the urban multi-energy system powered by low-carbon high-proportion renewable energy and its regulation demand characteristics,and established an MEH model with flexible“electricity-gas-hydrogen”energy conversion and storage characteristics.Secondly,taking the flow dynamics of the transportation network and its transportation cost into consideration,we established a multi-energy flow space-time coordination model based on the coordination of the transportation network and the urban multi-energy system network and investigated the energy characteristics of the MEH based on the MEH model.Thirdly,taking the uncertainty of renewable energy output and load into consideration,we proposed an uncertainty model of urban multi-energy system,and established the MEH planning model with the minimum comprehensive investment and operation cost.The simulation results of the example show that the proposed MEH planning model can effectively improve the economy of urban multi-energy system maintaining a high level of energy balance,and can provide better multi-temporal and spatial-scale energy regulation characteristics for multi-energy networks with large energy supply scales.