“双碳”目标下安徽省农业活动甲烷排放量研究

Research on CH 4 Emissions from Agricultural Activities in Anhui Province under“Dual Carbon”Goals

基于安徽省农业活动水平数据,以2009年为基准年,使用排放因子与稻田甲烷排放模型相结合的方法,估算2009—2022年安徽省农业活动甲烷排放量。计算结果表明:2009—2022年安徽省农业甲烷排放总量为1042.67×10^(4)t,整体呈上升趋势;不同农业领域的甲烷排放量差异明显,稻田甲烷排放量占比最大,约占总排放量的69%,其次是动物肠道发酵甲烷排放约占总排放量的19%,动物粪便管理甲烷排放量约占12%。使用数学建模软件MATLAB对2023年安徽省稻田甲烷排放量进行预测,排放预测量为52.59×10^(4)t,表明“双碳”目标提出后安徽省稻田甲烷排放量整体呈现逐年减少的良好趋势。

Based on the data of agricultural activity level in Anhui Province,using 2009 as the reference year and combining emission factors with rice field methane emission models,the methane emissions from agricultural activities in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2022 were estimated.The results show that the total agricultural methane emissions in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2022 were 1042.67×10^(4) tons,with an upward trend in general.The methane emissions from different agriculture are significantly different,with methane emissions from rice paddies accounting for the largest proportion,69% of the total emissions,methane emissions from animal intestinal fermentation accounting for 19%,and methane emissions from animal manure management accounting for about 12%.The mathematical modeling software Matlab was used to predict the methane emissions from rice paddies in Anhui Province in 2023.It was predicted that the methane emissions from rice paddies in Anhui Province in 2023 would be 52.59×10^(4) tons,showing a downward trend of methane emissions from rice paddies in Anhui Province after the dual carbon goals were proposed.