FTA环保条款异质性、内外有别与出口绿色转型

Heterogeneity of FTA Environmental Protection Clauses,Internal-external Differentiation and Export Green Transformation

随着绿色发展成为新一轮高标准国际经贸规则的主要议题,签署FTA环境保护条款能否推动中国出口绿色转型,事关中国“双碳”目标承诺能否顺利实现。鉴于此,本文的理论分析表明,FTA环境保护条款因其异质性和内外有别,从而对出口绿色转型影响具有不确定性。从异质性角度看,具有强制约束力而非鼓励义务性的环境保护条款,才能对出口绿色转型产生推动作用;从内外有别角度看,FTA环境保护条款推动出口绿色转型,仅仅在于对缔约方出口产生了绿色清洁型产品出口创造效应,并抑制了污染密集型产品出口,但这一结构改善效应并不存在于对非缔约方出口上;相反,对非缔约方出口还会出现污染密集型产品出口转移效应。本文基于中国已签署的区域自由贸易协定,利用2002一2018年0ECD投入产出数据对关键指标进行测度,验证了上述理论。本文认为,将FTA的环境规制压力转化为绿色创新动力,不仅要积极对标高标准绿色环保条款,而且要在更大范围内构建自由贸易区网络,尽可能杜绝“规制逃避型”问题。

China has committed to peaking its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.In the context where"green"has become a principal theme of the new round of high-standard international economic and trade regulations,the capability of free trade agreement(FTA)environmental protection clauses to drive the green transformation of China's exports is critical not only for fulfilling China's dual carbon commitments but also for effectively advancing the economic green transformation during a new phase of high-quality development.This study utilizes data from China's regional FTAs and OECD input-output tables from 2002 to 2018.Through empirical analyses based on scientifically measured key indicators,it is found that only environmentally protective clauses with binding obligations,as opposed to those that are merely encouraging,can foster the green transformation of exports.This reveals the"heterogeneity"characteristic of FTA environmental clauses.Mechanism tests indicate that FTA environmental clauses drive the green transformation of exports by creating an export creation effect of green products and suppressing the export of pollution-intensive products.However,this structural improvement effect does not extend to exports to non-signatory parties;instead,there is an export transfer effect of pollution-intensive products to non-signatory parties,showcasing an"internal-external differentiation"characteristic of FTA environmental clauses.A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of FTA environmental clauses on the green transformation of China's manufacturing exports is moderated by factors inherent to the signatory parties.By examining changes in the structure of export products within and outside FTA regions,the study reveals why those clauses that lack enforcement cannot effectively promote the green transformation of manufacturing exports,and only those environmental protection clauses that possess enforceable power can generate a creative effect for green products,thereby overcoming the pollution transfer phenomenon among market players within an industry and promoting a green transformation in the manufacturing export structure.This underscores the need for China to proactively integrate into the global network of high-standard FTAs.Environmental clauses should not merely remain at the stage of encouraging obligations but should evolve to be more binding,reflecting a deeper commitment in the trade agreements.This study not only deepens the understanding of factors influencing the green transformation of China's exports but also offers significant policy insights into how China can further promote institutional openness to advance the green transformation of exports.