公共债务、全球化和碳排放之间的相互作用对可持续发展的影响

The Impact of the Interplay Between Public Debt,Globalization,and Carbon Emissions on Sustainable Development

公共债务和碳排放对经济、环境和社会有着负面影响,使得它们成为实现可持续发展的重大挑战。尽管公共债务在提高政府保护环境能力方面发挥着重要作用,但这方面的经验证据相对较少。因此,本文基于1995—2021年67个国家的数据,研究公共债务、全球化和碳排放之间相互关系及作用机制。研究结果发现:第一,公共债务对碳排放的影响具有非线性特征,二者呈倒U型关系;第二,公共债务与全球化之间存在倒U型关系,且全球化在公共债务对碳排放的影响中存在着中介效应;第三,当我们将全球化指数分解为贸易、社会和政治三个维度进行探究时,发现公共债务通过影响贸易和社会全球化进而对碳排放存在影响,而政治全球化效应不显著。基于以上研究结论,本文建议政策制定者通过公共债务管理减少碳排放,应优先考虑对可持续发展的投资,支持环境友好型政策,同时严格控制债务增长带来的相关风险。

Public debt and carbon emissions are significant challenges for sustainable development due to their adverse impacts on the economy,environment,and society.Despite the significant role that public debt plays in improving the ability of the government to protect the environment,there is relatively little empirical evidence of this.Therefore,this study aims to reveal the relationship and mechanism among public debt,globalization,and carbon emissions by analyzing the data recorded between 1995 and 2021 of 67 countries.According to the empirical findings,first of all,the impact of public debt on carbon emissions has a non-linear characteristic,and the two have an inverted U-shaped relationship.Secondly,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between public debt and globalization,and globalization has an intermediary effect on the impact of public debt on carbon emissions.Thirdly,when we decompose the globalization index into trade,social,and political dimensions,we find that public debt impacts carbon emissions by influencing trade and social globalization.In contrast,political globalization has no significant impact.Based on the above findings,this study suggests that policymakers should reduce carbon emissions through public debt management by prioritizing investment in sustainable development and supporting environmentally friendly policies while strictly controlling the risks associated with debt growth.