上海原油期货发展成效与影响力提升研究

Development situation and influence enhancement of Shanghai crude oil futures

中国是世界原油生产、消费和进口大国,但缺乏与市场地位相匹配的国际油价影响力和话语权。进口规模大、对外依存度高且面临价格敞口风险,是当前中国油气安全面临的关键问题。上海原油期货上市以来取得了多方面发展成效,目前处于重要的战略发展机遇期。总结分析上海原油期货发展的制约因素和有利条件,制约因素包括应用场景偏少、持仓量成交量偏低、信息公开不足、结算便利化有待提升等;有利条件包括背靠消费中心、政策制度完善、人民币国际化不断推进等。为进一步提升上海原油期货价格影响力,推动上海原油期货成为亚太地区乃至国际原油定价基准,提出建议:政企多方发力,积极拓展原油期货价格的应用场景;建立权威统一的大宗商品信息发布平台和机制;逐步丰富完善油气期货国际化品种序列;加快基础设施建设,培育壮大亚太油气现货市场;拓展油气贸易人民币结算,协同推进人民币国际化。

China is a major producer,consumer and importer of crude oil in the world,but lacks the international crude oil prices influence and discourse power that match its market position.The large import scale,high external dependence,and exposure risk are the key issues facing China's oil and gas security guarantee at present.Since the listing of Shanghai crude oil futures,it has achieved various development results and is currently in an important period of strategic development opportunities.This paper summarizes and analyzes the constraints and favorable conditions for the development of Shanghai crude oil futures.The constraining factors include limited application scenarios,low trading volume and open interest,insufficient information disclosure,and settlement facilitation to be improved.The favorable conditions include relying on the consumption center,improving policies and systems,and promoting the internationalization of the RMB.In order to further enhance the influence of Shanghai crude oil futures prices,promote Shanghai crude oil futures to become the benchmark of crude oil pricing in the Asia-Pacific and even the international community,the suggestions are as follows:(1)The governments and enterprises should make efforts to actively expand the application scenarios of crude oil futures prices;(2)Establish an authoritative and unified platform and mechanism for releasing commodity information;(3)Gradually enrich and improve the international variety sequence of oil and gas futures;(4)Accelerate infrastructure construction to foster and grow the Asia-Pacific spot oil and gas market;(5)Expand the RMB settlement for oil and gas trade,jointly promote the internationalization of RMB.