液氢槽车氢泄漏风险分析

Risk analysis of hydrogen leakage in liquid hydrogen tankers

运用风险管理系统工程原理,采用故障树分析法,对液氢槽车运行过程中的氢泄漏风险进行分析评估。分析了液氢槽车氢泄漏事故机理,明确基本事件32项和中间事件17项,建立了故障树模型。基于故障树的结构分析,求解最小割集,确定了各基本事件的结构重要度。基于专家经验判断的模糊方法预测基本事件概率,采用最小割集计算法近似计算氢泄漏顶事件的发生概率,并计算事件概率重要度,实现故障树的半定量分析,构建基于故障树的液氢槽车氢泄漏风险评价体系。基于事件的结构重要度和概率计算,确定了外力损坏罐体、外热损坏罐体、制止阀卡死、安全阀故障、外力损坏制止阀、泄压失效6项重要风险,并从运营单位日常定检、罐车防护装置设置、液氢储罐失效监测等方面提出了针对性的防范措施以降低液氢槽车氢泄漏风险。

The risk of hydrogen leakage during the operation of liquid hydrogen tankers was analyzed and assessed by using the principles of risk management system engineering and the fault tree analysis method.The mechanisms behind the hydrogen leakage accidents in the liquid hydrogen tankers were analyzed,outlining 32 basic events and 17 intermediate events,establishing a fault tree model.Based on the structural analysis of fault trees,the minimum cut set was solved to determine the structural importance of each basic event.A fuzzy method based on expert experience judgment was used to predict the probability of basic events.The minimum cut set calculation method was used to approximate the probability of hydrogen leakage top event,and the importance of event probability was calculated.Semi-quantitative analysis of fault trees was achieved,and a hydrogen leakage risk assessment system for liquid hydrogen tankers based on fault trees was constructed.Based on the structural importance and probability calculations of events,6 significant risks were identified:external force damage to the tank body,external heat damage to the tank body,jamming of the shut-off valves,safety valves failure,external force damage to the shut-off valves,and pressure relief failure.Targeted preventive measures were proposed,including daily routine inspection,installation of tanker protective devices,and monitoring of liquid hydrogen tank failure,to reduce the risk of hydrogen leakage in liquid hydrogen tankers.