新疆水资源经济生态系统韧性协调分析及未来预测

Coordination analysis on water resources-economy-ecological resilience in Xinjiang region and future prediction

为了提高新疆干旱区水资源-经济-生态系统韧性水平,实现三者协调发展,以新疆干旱区14个地州为例,采用熵权法确定指标权重,运用耦合协调模型测算水资源-经济-生态系统韧性耦合度和协调度,并应用R/S分析法预测新疆未来协调度发展趋势。研究结果表明:①2010~2020年新疆水资源-经济-生态系统韧性综合发展水平整体呈上升趋势,系统对风险冲击的抵御力、恢复力和适应力有所增强。②各地州耦合度呈良好耦合状态,协调水平整体由勉强协调向中级失调转变。③由Hurst指数可知,博尔塔拉蒙古自治州等9个地区水资源-经济-生态韧性协调度呈现改善趋势,昌吉回族自治州等5个地区协调度呈恶化趋势。新疆在未来发展应注重水资源和生态环境的保护,提高水资源、经济、生态系统韧性协调程度,实现社会可持续发展。

To improve the level of water resources-economy-ecological resilience in the arid region of Xinjiang and achieve the coordinated development of the three,taking 14 prefectures in the arid zone of Xinjiang as examples,the entropy weight method was used to determine the weights of indicators,and the coupling coordination model was applied to measure the water resources-economy-ecological resilience coupling degree and coordination degree.The R/S analysis was applied to predict the development trend of the future coordination degree in Xinjiang.The results showed that:①From 2010 to 2020,the overall development level of the water resources-economy-ecological resilience in Xinjiang showed an upward trend,and the system′s resistance,resilience and adaptability to risk were enhanced.②The coupling degree of each region and prefectures was in a good state,and the overall coordination level has changed from barely coordinated to intermediate out of balance.③From the Hurst index,9 regions including Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,showed an improving trend in water resources-economy-ecological resilience coordination,and 5 regions including Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,showed a deteriorating trend in coordination.Xinjiang should pay attention to the protection of water resources and ecological environment in the future development,improve the coordination degree of water resources-economy-ecological resilience,and realize the sustainable development of the society.