俄乌冲突背后的秩序之争及其对国际秩序的影响

The Struggle for Order behind the Ukrainian Crisis and the Changing Order in the Post-Crisis Era

俄乌冲突不仅是俄罗斯与以美国为首的西方世界的地缘政治竞争,更是双方围绕国际秩序的竞争。苏联解体后美国的霸权秩序迅速扩展至全球,并试图形成以其为主导的地缘政治结构、经济分工体系和相应的价值规则,从而将其他国家锚定在边缘地带并相互制衡。对20世纪90年代自由主义改革的反思和21世纪以来的复兴努力,使俄罗斯与美国霸权秩序之间的矛盾日益尖锐,主要表现为经济发展的利益冲突、权力竞争的地缘冲突和秩序规范的认知冲突等。面对美国及西方的战略优势和集体排斥,俄罗斯更加迫切地需要推动国际秩序的变迁。为此,俄罗斯以批判美国霸权秩序的弊端和虚伪为战略抓手,借助全球南方国家的安全关切和对自主发展的需求积极推进其多极世界秩序构想。而出于维护自身霸权的需要,美国也在加速调整其自由国际秩序的对外政策,重拾意识形态和阵营对抗,试图形成对中俄等力量的秩序性遏制。俄乌冲突无论最终结果如何,都将加剧未来国际秩序变迁的复杂性和斗争的尖锐性。当然,美国及西方世界与俄罗斯围绕国际秩序的竞争客观上将为全球南方构建更加公平合理的国际新秩序提供新的历史机遇,从长远来看也将有助于促使各方最终回到联合国宪章的宗旨和原则以及国际法上来。

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not only a geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the U.S.-led West,but also a rivalry between the two sides around the international order.After the collapse of the Soviet Union,the U.S.hegemonic order expanded rapidly across the globe and attempted to form a geopolitical structure,an economic division of labor,and a corresponding rule of values dominated by the U.S.,thereby anchoring other countries in a peripheral zone of mutual checks and balances.Reflections on the liberal reforms of the 1990s and revitalization efforts since the new century have led to increasingly sharp contradictions between Russia and the U.S.hegemonic order,mainly in the form of a conflict of interests over economic development,a geopolitical conflict over the competition for power,and a conflict of perceptions over the norms of the order.In the face of the strategic superiority and collective rejection of the United States and the West,Russia's need to push for a change in the international order has become more urgent.To this end,Russia has taken the criticism of the shortcomings and hypocrisy of the United States'hegemonic order as its strategic focus,and is actively promoting its vision of a multipolar world order,drawing on the security concerns of the countries of the Global South and the need for autonomous development.And out of the need to maintain its own hegemony,the U.S.is also accelerating the adjustment of its foreign policy of the liberal international order,regaining its ideology and camp confrontation,and attempting to form an orderly containment of forces such as China and Russia.Whatever the final outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,it will exacerbate the complexity of the changes in the international order and the acrimony of the struggle in the future.Of course,the competition between the United States and the Western world and Russia over the international order will objectively provide a new historical opportunity for the global South to build a fairer and more reasonable new international order,and in the long run will help to bring all parties back to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and international law.