乌克兰国家治理:基础条件、政策选择与国家状态

State Governance in Ukraine:Foundational Conditions,Policy Options and the State of the Nation

本文从国内政治视角探讨乌克兰国家治理,并提出一个分析框架。本文认为,乌克兰国家治理之低效与其国家基础条件、政策选择和国家状态有着密切的关系。乌克兰国家治理的基础条件兼具优势与劣势,决定了国家面临地区分离主义倾向和族群分歧、经济与国防脆弱、与俄罗斯存在分歧与矛盾等问题。要解决这些问题,理想的政策选择应以公共利益最大化为取向,稳妥处理中央与地方关系,构建包容性的国家认同,推行包容多元的民族文化政策,促进经济可持续发展并在此基础上推进国防建设,以及坚持和平、中立和平衡的外交政策。然而,乌克兰独立以来的现实政策选择却距离理想方案渐行渐远,主要体现在政治激进化与地缘政治化、历史叙事和民族文化政策一元化、经济寡头化、国防能力建设滞后以及外交政策极化。如此政策选择背离了公共利益最大化取向,不仅未能有效解决国家面临的主要问题,反而加剧了内外分歧与矛盾,导致国家长期处于危机或准危机状态,而糟糕的国家状态对政策选择形成反噬作用,促使政策选择具有短期性和依附性的特点,并与国家状态形成恶性循环。

The ineffectiveness of governance in Ukraine is closely related to its national infrastructure,policy choices and the state of the nation.The fundamentals of Ukrainian state governance combine strengths and weaknesses,determining the country's exposure to regional separatist tendencies and ethnic divisions,economic and defense vulnerabilities,and disagreements and contradictions with Russia.To address these issues,the ideal policy choices should be oriented towards maximizing the public interest,appropriately managing the relationship between the central and local levels,constructing an inclusive national identity,pursuing an ethnocultural policy that embraces pluralism,fostering sustainable economic development and advancing national defense on that basis,and upholding a foreign policy that is peaceful,neutral and balanced.However,the realities of Ukraine's policy choices since independence have drifted away from the ideal scenario,mainly in terms of political radicalization and geopolitization,monolithic historical narratives and ethnocultural policies,oligarchic economy,lagging defense capacity building,and polarization of foreign policy.Such policy choices deviate from the public interest maximization orientation,leading to a state in a chronic state of crisis or quasi-crisis,while the poor state of the country has a backlash effect on policy choices,contributing to the short-term and dependent character of policy choices and forming a vicious circle with the state of the state.