考虑出力偏差与风险控制的虚拟电厂收益分配策略

Profit Distribution Strategy of Virtual Power Plants Considering Output Deviation and Risk Control

随着“双碳”目标的提出,分布式资源潜力不断被挖掘,能够有效聚合分布式资源的虚拟电厂逐渐受到广泛关注。虚拟电厂通过市场化交易保障供需平衡,为进一步提升电力保供能力,应降低虚拟电厂的出力偏差并提高其风险控制水平。针对此问题,文章首先对虚拟电厂中分布式资源的特性进行分析;其次,基于条件风险价值理论和合作博弈理论,考虑虚拟电厂中分布式资源的出力偏差与风险控制,提出基于改进沙普利值法的虚拟电厂收益分配策略;最后,通过算例分析验证所提收益分配策略的有效性。通过条件风险价值定量分析分布式资源在不同风险水平、出力偏差以及贡献度场景下的虚拟电厂收益分配机制。算例分析表明,所提出的合作交易策略能够提高分布式资源的收益,且能有效控制新能源出力偏差并平抑其参与市场的风险,在实现多方共赢的情况下提高电力系统的供应能力。

With the proposal of a dual-carbon target,the potential of distributed energy resources(DERs)has been explored.Virtual power plants(VPPs)that effectively aggregate DERs have received attention.VPPs promote the balance between supply and demand through market trading.To further improve the power supply capability,the output deviation of VPPs should be reduced,and the risk control level should be improved.In this study,the characteristics of DERs aggregated in VPPs were analyzed.Then,based on the theories of conditional value-at-risk and cooperative game,a profit distribution method was designed by improving the Shapley value method considering the output deviations and risk control of DERs in VPPs.Finally,a case study was conducted to verify the rationality of the proposed profit distribution strategy.This study also quantitatively analyzed the revenue allocation mechanism of VPPs under different risk levels,output deviations,and contribution scenarios of DERs using the conditional value-at-risk theory.The case study demonstrates that the proposed cooperative trading strategies can improve the revenue of DERs and effectively control their output deviations.It can also suppress the risk of DERs participating in the electricity market,thereby improving the supply capacity of the power system in a win-win situation for all parties.