高铁站点选址对城市客流出行结构的影响分析

Analysis of the Influence of Site Selection of High-speed Railway Station on Passenger Flow Travel Structure in Cities

高铁的发展带动了城市的经济发展,也使得城市居民出行多了一种选择。但由于高铁在建设过程中强调时间效率,线路规划以直接连接大型城市的线路为基础,中心城市之外的地级城市的高铁车站往往远离城区,出行的居民需要用大量时间前往高铁站,这些地区的居民事实上很难借助高铁出行,因此高铁站的选址在很大程度上影响到城市的客流出行结构。本文通过引入DID技术以及门槛估计方法检验发现,高铁站的位置对于城市居民出行结构存在门槛效应,即高铁站离市区较近的城市,高铁开通后会有更多人借助此种出行方式外出,而在高铁站离市区较远的城市,高铁对于乘客的吸引力则有限。此外,研究还指出,拥有地铁等高速交通设施接驳高铁站的大型城市,其车站与市中心距离的门槛值远高于没有这些设施的地级城市。且高铁会逐步对高铁设站距离更远的城市产生辐射效应,但其对于城市客流出行方式结构的影响则逐步趋于稳态。本文的研究结论对于城市未来高铁站点的规划建设具有一定的参考价值。

The development of high-speed rail led to the economic development of the city,it also has given urban residents an alternative to travel.However,due to the emphasis on time efficiency in the construction planning process of high-speed railway,the route plan is modeled on lines directly connecting large cities and the stations in non-central cities are often far away from the original urban areas.It also keeps prefecture-level rail stations outside central cities away from urban areas,where traveling residents spend a lot of time traveling,Therefore,the site selection of high-speed railway sta-tions greatly affects the passenger flow structure of the city.By introducing the DID technology and threshold estimation method,this paper found that the location of high-speed railway stations has a threshold effect on the travel structure of ur-ban residents.Cities with high-speed rail stations closer to urban areas will see more people go out in this way after the o-pening of high-speed rail.Cities farther away from high-speed rail stations have limited appeal for passengers.In addition,the study also pointed out that the threshold value of large cities with high-speed transportation facilities such as the metro to connect high-speed rail stations is much higher than that of ordinary prefecture-level cities.Over time,The radiation effects of high-speed trains on cities farther and farther away from stations,but its influence on the structure of urban pas-senger flow travel mode gradually tends to be stable.The conclusion of this paper has a certain reference value for the plan-ning and construction of urban high-speed railway stations in the future.